Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role of Imports in the U.S. Cement Industry
Demand uncertainty is thought to in uence irreversible capacity decisions. Suppose local demand can be sourced from domestic (rigid) production or from (fl exible) imports. This paper shows that the optimal domestic capacity is either increasing or decreasing with demand uncertainty depending on the relative level of the costs of domestic production and imports. This relationship is tested with data on the U.S. cement industry, where, because cement is costly to transport over land, the diff erence in marginal cost between domestic production and imports varies across local U.S. markets. Industry data for 1999 to 2010 are consistent with the predictions of the model. The introduction of two technologies to the production set one rigid and one exible is crucial in understanding the relationship between capacity choice and uncertainty in this industry because there is no relationship at the aggregated U.S. data. The analysis presented in the paper reveals that the relationship is negative for coastal districts, and signi cantly more positive in landlocked districts.
|Date of creation:||14 May 2014|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00816410v2|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pankaj Ghemawat & Catherine Thomas, 2008. "Strategic Interaction Across Countries and Multinational Agglomeration: An Application to the Cement Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 1980-1996, December.
- A. Michael Spence, 1977. "Entry, Capacity, Investment and Oligopolistic Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 534-544, Autumn.
- Meunier, Guy & Ponssard, Jean-Pierre & Quirion, Philippe, 2014.
"Carbon leakage and capacity-based allocations: Is the EU right?,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 262-279.
- Guy Meunier & Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Philippe Quirion, 2012. "Carbon Leakage and Capacity-Based Allocations. Is the EU right?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4029, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guy Meunier & Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Philippe Quirion, 2012. "Carbon leakage and Capacity-Based Allocations. Is the EU right?," Post-Print hal-00797234, HAL.
- Guy Meunier & Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Philippe Quirion, 2014. "Carbon Leakage and Capacity-Based Allocations. Is the EU right?," CIRED Working Papers hal-00672907, HAL.
- Dixit, Avinash, 1980. "The Role of Investment in Entry-Deterrence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 95-106, March.
- Dixit, Avinash, 1979. "The Role of Investment in Entry-Deterrence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 140, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Blonigen, Bruce A., 2001. "In search of substitution between foreign production and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-104, February.
- Bruce A. Blonigen, 1999. "In Search of Substitution Between Foreign Production and Exports," NBER Working Papers 7154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hector Perez-Saiz, 2010. "Building New Plants or Entering by Acquisition? Estimation of an Entry Model for the U.S. Cement Industry," Working Papers 10-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Hector Perez-Saiz, 2011. "Building New Plants or Entering by Acquisition? Estimation of an Entry Model for the U.S. Cement Industry," Staff Working Papers 11-1, Bank of Canada.
- Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-228, June.
- Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 1995. "Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," International Finance Discussion Papers 517, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lieberman, Marvin B, 1987. "Excess Capacity as a Barrier to Entry: An Empirical Appraisal," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 607-627, June.
- Rafael Rob & Nikolaos Vettas, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 629-648.
- Rafael Rob & Nikolaos Vettas, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand," Penn CARESS Working Papers f8c083d9257897f97ff49d054, Penn Economics Department.
- Rob, Rafael & Vettas, Nikolaos, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand," CEPR Discussion Papers 2786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rafael Rob & Nikolaos Vettas, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
- Ghemawat, Pankaj, 1984. "Capacity Expansion in the Titanium Dioxide Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 145-163, December.
- Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
- Jean-Pierre Ponssard & Claude D'Aspremont & David Encaoua, 2000. "Competition policy and game theory: reflection based on the cement industry case," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00365743, HAL.
- Huntley Schaller & Fanny Demers & Michel Demers, 1993. "Investments Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," Carleton Economic Papers 93-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 1990.
- Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
- Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
- Goldberg, L.S. & Campa, J., 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rate and External Exposure," Working Papers 93-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rates and External Exposure," NBER Working Papers 4378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mathis, Stephen & Koscianski, Janet, 1997. "Excess capacity as a barrier to entry in the US titanium industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 263-281, April.
- Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Econometric Studies of Investment Behavior: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1111-1147, December.
- Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-153, April.
- Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Jean J. Gabszewicz & Sougata Poddar, 1997. "Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(1), pages 131-146.
- Gabszewicz, J.J. & Poddar, S., "undated". "Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1269, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- GABSZEWICZ, Jean J. & PODDAR , Sougata, 1995. "Demand Fluctuations and Capacity Utilization under Duopoly," CORE Discussion Papers 1995051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
- Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-588, November.
- Bruce Kogut & Nalin Kulatilaka, 1994. "Operating Flexibility, Global Manufacturing, and the Option Value of a Multinational Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 123-139, January.
- Norman,George & Thisse,Jacques-FranÃ§ois (ed.), 2000. "Market Structure and Competition Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521783330, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00816410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.