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The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
  2. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage," Working Papers 1230, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  3. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe & Leal, Julio & Martinez Fritscher, Andre, 2019. "Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 304-323.
  4. Noori, Mohammad, 2024. "Stock-oil comovements through fear, uncertainty, and expectations: Evidence from conditional comoments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 529-551.
  5. Martin, William J., 2012. "Managing High and Volatile Food Prices," Trade Issues Papers 142732, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  6. Dvir, Eyal & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2014. "Demand effects and speculation in oil markets: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 113-128.
  7. Smimou, K. & Bosch, D. & Filbeck, G., 2024. "Commodities and Policy Uncertainty Channel(s)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 351-379.
  8. Cheng, Zishu & Li, Mingchen & Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Climate change and crude oil prices: An interval forecast model with interval-valued textual data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  9. Aït-Youcef, Camille & Joëts, Marc, 2024. "The role of index traders in the financialization of commodity markets: A behavioral finance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  10. Adam Zaremba, 2015. "Inflation, Business Cycles, and Commodity Investing in Financialized Markets," Business and Economics Research Journal, Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
  11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11382 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Irwin, Scott H., 2012. "Does the Masters Hypothesis Explain Recent Food Price Spikes?," Working Papers 126944, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
  13. repec:aen:journl:ej34-3-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79758, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  15. Ganepola, Chanaka N. & Zarei, Alireza & Tony-Okeke, Uchenna, 2025. "The other side of the coin: Speculation in bearish natural gas markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
  16. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-019 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Martin Grančay, 2012. "Vplyv subvencií na celkovú užitočnosť v malom a veľkom štáte - neoklasický grafický model," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 16-26.
  18. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2024. "Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-04873466, HAL.
  19. Francesco Ravazzolo & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Papers No 3/2012, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  20. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
  21. Alessandro Cologni & Elisa Scarpa & Francesco Giuseppe Sitzia, 2015. "Big Fish: Oil Markets and Speculation," Working Papers 2015.52, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  22. Aysegul Ates, 2016. "Trading Activity and Prices in Energy Futures Market," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11.
  23. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Expectations and Speculation in the Natural Gas Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 11341, CESifo.
  24. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2020. "The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil," CAMA Working Papers 2020-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  25. Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 211-253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Letixerant, Philip, 2025. "Oil price expectations in explosive phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  27. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2024. "Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  28. Liang, Qian & Lin, Qingyuan & Guo, Mengzhuo & Lu, Quanying & Zhang, Dayong, 2025. "Forecasting crude oil prices: A Gated Recurrent Unit-based nonlinear Granger Causality model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  29. Klaudia Pyteľová, 2012. "Špecifiká postavenia štátu ako subjektu medzinárodného práva," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 109-118.
  30. John Elder & Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander, 2013. "Jumps in Oil Prices: The Role of Economic News," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 217-237, July.
  31. Bassam Fattouh & Lavan Mahadeva, 2014. "Causes and Implications of Shifts in Financial Participation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 757-787, August.
  32. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  33. repec:aen:journl:ej34-3-09 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Joëts, Marc, 2015. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 204-215.
  35. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2012. "On Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 505-532, December.
  36. Celso Brunetti & Bahattin Bykahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2013. "Herding and Speculation in the Crude Oil Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 83-104, July.
  37. repec:aen:journl:ej34-3-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. DeCoste, Joseph, 2025. "Does excess futures market demand affect the spot price of oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  39. Delle Chiaie, S., 2013. "Pétrole et macroéconomie - Synthèse de l’atelier Banque de France du 14 novembre 2012," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 192, pages 111-116.
  40. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 271-279.
  41. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
  42. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Colak, Gonul & Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis, 2025. "Systemic risk and oil price volatility shocks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  43. Deepa D. Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2021. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 214-253, April.
  44. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
  45. Filippo Natoli, 2018. "Analyzing the structural transformation of commodity markets: financialization revisited," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 419, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  46. Lucia Kužmová, 2012. "Inštitucionálne modely hospodárskej diplomacie - príklad Nemecka, Rakúska, Švajčiarska a Slovenska," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 153-169.
  47. Holtemöller Oliver, 2013. "Explosive Preisentwicklung und spekulative Blasen auf Rohstoffmärkten / Explosive behavior and speculative bubbles on commodity markets," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 64(1), pages 405-420, January.
  48. Gruber, Joseph W. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2018. "Interest Rates And The Volatility And Correlation Of Commodity Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 600-619, April.
  49. repec:clg:wpaper:2013-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Philip Pilkington, 2013. "A Stock-flow Approach to a General Theory of Pricing," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_781, Levy Economics Institute.
  51. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2014. "Latin American Performance to External Shocks: What Has Really Been Sweat?," MPRA Paper 57816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
  53. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
  55. Katarína Cséfalvayová, 2012. "Právna úprava zdieľania medzinárodných vodných tokov: kritické zhodnotenie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 182-191.
  56. Jana Drutarovská, 2012. "Vplyv špekulácií na vývoj cien ropy," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 192-201.
  57. Veronika Fodorová, 2012. "Tradičné teórie medzinárodných vzťahov ako východisko pre rozvoj teórií európskej integrácie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 170-181.
  58. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 906, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  59. Walid Mensi & Salem Adel Ziadat & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Spillovers and Portfolio Management Between the Uncertainty Indices of Oil and Gold and G7 Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2233-2262, October.
  60. Pies, Ingo, 2015. "Kommentar zur Spekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen: Eine Replik auf Christian Conrad," Discussion Papers 2015-11, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
  61. Ding, Haoyuan & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2014. "Do net positions in the futures market cause spot prices of crude oil?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 177-190.
  62. Janzen, Joseph P. & Smith, Aaron D., 2012. "Commodity Price Comovement: The Case of Cotton," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285766, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  63. Fernando Avalos & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2015. "The biofuel connection: impact of US regulation on oil and food prices," BIS Working Papers 487, Bank for International Settlements.
  64. repec:aen:journl:ej34-3-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
  66. Joseph P. Byrne & Marco Lorusso & Bing Xu, 2017. "Oil Prices and Informational Frictions: The Time-Varying Impact of Fundamentals and Expectations," CEERP Working Paper Series 006, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
  67. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
  68. Bierbaumer, Daniel & Rieth, Malte & Velinov, Anton, 2021. "The state-dependent trading behavior of banks in the oil futures market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 191, pages 1011-1024.
  69. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
  70. Bernhard Troester, 2012. "The determinants of the recent food price surges – A basic supply and demand model," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1206, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
  71. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  72. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and export performance in Egypt: New insights from wavelet decomposition and optimal GARCH model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 201-227, March.
  73. Jean-Marc Fournier & Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner & Vera Zipperer, 2013. "The Price of Oil – Will it Start Rising Again?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1031, OECD Publishing.
  74. Monika Mrlinová, 2012. "Vývoj multilaterálních dohod ve světovém obchodě v kontextu historie až po současnost," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 53-72.
  75. Will, Matthias Georg & Prehn, Sören & Pies, Ingo & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Schadet oder nützt die Finanzspekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen? Ein Literaturüberblick zum aktuellen Stand der empirischen Forschung," Discussion Papers 2012-26, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
  76. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 153-190, July.
  77. Just, Małgorzata & Kliber, Agata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2025. "Return connectedness between energy commodities and stock markets: New evidence from 31 energy sector companies in Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  78. Ľudmila Lipková, 2012. "Ekonomické reformy v Kórejskej ľudovodemokratickej republike," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 36-52.
  79. Marta Zágoršeková, 2012. "Zen a buddhistická tradícia súčasného Japonska," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 7-15.
  80. Kurov, Alexander & Olson, Eric & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2024. "Have the causal effects between equities, oil prices, and monetary policy changed over time?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
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  82. Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2013. "Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets," NBER Working Papers 18906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Mikuláš Černota, 2012. "Spoločenské a ekologické dopady zvyšovania hladiny morí na mobilitu ľudskej populácie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 86-98.
  84. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
  85. Ľubomír Čech, 2012. "Faktory rozvoja a radikalizácie islamu v regióne Strednej Ázie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 73-85.
  86. Wang, Xinya & Vigne, Samuel A. & Huang, Shupei, 2025. "The impact of uncertainties on contagions in energy market risk networks: Evidence from synthesizing multiple-order moments and multiple time horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  87. Mensi, Walid & El Khoury, Rim & Al-Kharusi, Sami & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme dynamic connectedness and hedging strategy across commodity, bond, currency, and stock markets: Evidence from Asian Pacific, Canada, Mexico, and US countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  88. Kliber, Agata & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara, 2024. "Proof-of-work versus proof-of-stake coins as possible hedges against green and dirty energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  89. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
  90. Nikolaos T. Milonas & Evangelia K. Photina, 2024. "The convenience yield under commodity financialization," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 631-652, April.
  91. Samya Beidas-Strom & Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2014. "Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation," IMF Working Papers 2014/218, International Monetary Fund.
  92. Booth, Philip & Zuluaga, Diego, 2018. "Socially useless? The crucial contribution of finance to economic life," IEA Discussion Papers 87, Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).
  93. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "Exchange Uncertainty and Export Performance in Egypt: New Insights from Wavelet Decomposition and Optimal GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 59568, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
  94. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2013. "Measuring Index Investment in Commodity Futures Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 105-127, July.
  95. Pies, Ingo, 2012. "Die zivilgesellschaftliche Kampagne gegen Finanzspekulationen mit Agrarrohstoffen: Eine wirtschaftsethische Stellungnahme," Discussion Papers 2012-23, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
  96. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "The ‘Necessity’ of New Position Limits in Agricultural Futures Markets:," 2014 Conference, April 21-22, 2014, St. Louis, Missouri 285813, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  97. Katarína Brocková, 2012. "Nová európska investičná politika a jej dopad na osud bilaterálnych investičných dohôd členských štátov EÚ (2. časť)," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 27-35.
  98. Li, Haiqi & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2015. "The role of financial speculation in the energy future markets: A new time-varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 112-122.
  99. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
  100. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
  101. Marco Haase & Yvonne Seiler Zimmermann & Heinz Zimmermann, 2019. "Permanent and transitory price shocks in commodity futures markets and their relation to speculation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1359-1382, April.
  102. Stanislaw Konopacki, 2012. "Problem of Eastern partnership during Polish presidency in the European Union in 2011," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 119-128.
  103. Nóra Szikorová, 2012. "Súčasné a očakávané budúce trendy prílevu čínskych priamych investícií do Afriky," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 99-108.
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  106. Zuzana Stuchlíková, 2012. "Japan´s lost decade: on the development of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 129-152.
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