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The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability

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Cited by:

  1. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
  2. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
  3. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
  4. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
  5. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
  6. Scholz, Michael & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Sperlich, Stefan, 2015. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns based on yearly data: The long-term view," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 143-155.
  7. Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "Forking paths in financial economics," Papers 2401.08606, arXiv.org.
  8. Tomek Katzur & Laura Spierdijk, 2013. "Stock returns and inflation risk: economic versus statistical evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1123-1136, July.
  9. Yiwen (Paul) Dou & David R. Gallagher & David Schneider & Terry S. Walter, 2012. "Out-of-sample stock return predictability in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(3), pages 461-479, December.
  10. Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Modise, Mampho P. & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Can economic uncertainty, financial stress and consumer sentiments predict U.S. equity premium?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 367-378.
  11. David Haab & Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2017. "Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks," Working Papers 2017-14, Swiss National Bank.
  12. Meng-Chen Hsieh & Clifford Hurvich & Philippe Soulier, 2022. "Long-Horizon Return Predictability from Realized Volatility in Pure-Jump Point Processes," Papers 2202.00793, arXiv.org.
  13. Xyngis, Georgios, 2017. "Business-cycle variation in macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence for scale-dependent risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 43-65.
  14. Chen, Yong & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dayong, 2022. "Short selling efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 387-408.
  15. Maynard, Alex & Ren, Dongmeng, 2019. "The finite sample power of long-horizon predictive tests in models with financial bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 418-430.
  16. Theologos Dergiades & Panos K. Pouliasis, 2023. "Should stock returns predictability be ‘hooked on’ long‐horizon regressions?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 718-732, January.
  17. Engel, Charles & Wu, Steve Pak Yeung, 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  18. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2018. "Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 519-540, August.
  19. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
  20. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2011. "Market Variance Risk Premiums in Japan as Predictor Variables and Indicators of Risk Aversion," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-214, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  21. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Stock return distribution and predictability: Evidence from over a century of daily data on the DJIA index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-25.
  22. Noman, Abdullah & Naka, Atsuyuki & Zirek, Duygu, 2017. "Examining return predictability of industry style portfolios with prior return relative to a benchmark," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 193-203.
  23. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1493-1520, October.
  24. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
  25. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
  26. Michael Scholz & Jens Perch Nielsen & Stefan Sperlich, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns guided by prior knowledge," Graz Economics Papers 2012-02, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
  27. Nida Çakır Melek & Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2020. "Mining for Oil Forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 20-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  28. Cedric Okou & Eric Jacquier, 2014. "Horizon Effect in the Term Structure of Long-Run Risk-Return Trade-Offs," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-36, CIRANO.
  29. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
  30. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
  31. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
  32. Yan Li & Liyan Yang, 2013. "Asset-Pricing Implications of Dividend Volatility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 2036-2055, September.
  33. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  34. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
  35. Hwai-Chung Ho, 2022. "Forecasting the distribution of long-horizon returns with time-varying volatility," Papers 2201.07457, arXiv.org.
  36. Mili, Mehdi, 2019. "The impact of tradeoff between risk and return on mean reversion in sovereign CDS markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 187-200.
  37. Okou, Cédric & Jacquier, Éric, 2016. "Horizon effect in the term structure of long-run risk-return trade-offs," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 445-466.
  38. Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
  39. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
  40. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2019. "The information content of forward moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 527-541.
  41. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  42. Tolga Cenesizoglu, 2010. "Size, Book-to-Market Ratio and Macroeconomic News," Cahiers de recherche 1033, CIRPEE.
  43. Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 76-82.
  44. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2019. "What Goliaths and Davids among Swiss firms tell us about expected returns on Swiss asset markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-17, December.
  45. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
  46. Sizova, Natalia, 2014. "A frequency-domain alternative to long-horizon regressions with application to return predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 261-272.
  47. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2012. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-253.
  48. Murphy, Austin & AlSalman, Zeina, 2023. "Relationships between stock returns and real earnings yields over the last 150 years," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  49. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 38-51.
  50. Alejandro Bernales & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2023. "Effects of Information Overload on Financial Markets: How Much Is Too Much?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1372, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2012. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2012-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  52. Jian Zhou, 2012. "Multiscale Analysis of International Linkages of REIT Returns and Volatilities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1062-1087, November.
  53. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  54. Steven Clark & T. Coggin, 2011. "Are U.S. stock prices mean reverting? Some new tests using fractional integration models with overlapping data and structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 373-391, April.
  55. Liya Chu & Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li & Jun Tu, 2022. "Investor Sentiment and Paradigm Shifts in Equity Return Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4301-4325, June.
  56. Favilukis, Jack & Lin, Xiaoji, 2016. "Does wage rigidity make firms riskier? Evidence from long-horizon return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 80-95.
  57. Costantini, Mauro & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Economics Series 305, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  58. Anisha Ghosh & George M. Constantinides, 2010. "The Predictability of Returns with Regime Shifts in Consumption and Dividend Growth," NBER Working Papers 16183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
  60. Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Israel & Matthew P. Richardson, 2020. "Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 27410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Silvo Dajčman, 2013. "Interdependence Between Some Major European Stock Markets - A Wavelet Lead/Lag Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(1), pages 28-49.
  62. Maio, Paulo, 2016. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-109.
  63. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2014. "Market variance risk premiums in Japan for asset predictability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 169-198, August.
  64. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  65. Liu, Feng & Kalotay, Egon & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Assessing sovereign default risk: A bottom-up approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 525-542.
  66. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
  67. Hoang, Lai T. & Baur, Dirk G., 2022. "Loaded for bear: Bitcoin private wallets, exchange reserves and prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  68. Pierlauro Lopez, 2018. "A New Keynesian Q Theory and the Link Between Inflation and the Stock Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 85-105, July.
  69. Andersen, Torben G. & Todorov, Viktor & Ubukata, Masato, 2021. "Tail risk and return predictability for the Japanese equity market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 344-363.
  70. Bandi, F.M. & Perron, B. & Tamoni, A. & Tebaldi, C., 2019. "The scale of predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 120-140.
  71. Stephan Jank, 2015. "Changes in the Composition of Publicly Traded Firms: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1362-1377, June.
  72. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  73. Matteo Bonato & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Predictive Power of Industrial Electricity Usage Revisited: Evidence from Nonparametric Causality Tests," Working Papers 201679, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  74. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2019. "Long horizon predictability: An asset allocation perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 961-975.
  75. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2011. "Improving the predictability of real economic activity and asset returns with forward variances inferred from option portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 475-495, June.
  76. Almeida, Caio & Graveline, Jeremy J. & Joslin, Scott, 2011. "Do interest rate options contain information about excess returns?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 35-44, September.
  77. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
  78. Zhang, Yuzhao, 2014. "Contrarian flows, consumption and expected stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-111.
  79. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
  80. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Francesco, 2020. "Dynamics of variance risk premia: A new model for disentangling the price of risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 312-334.
  81. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  82. Charles W. Calomiris & Nida Çakır Melek & Harry Mamaysky, 2021. "Predicting the Oil Market," NBER Working Papers 29379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
  84. Floro, Danvee, 2019. "Testing the predictive ability of house price bubbles for macroeconomic performance: A meta-analytic approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-181.
  85. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
  86. Gourio, François, 2008. "Time-series predictability in the disaster model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 191-203, December.
  87. Baltas, Nick & Karyampas, Dimitrios, 2018. "Forecasting the equity risk premium: The importance of regime-dependent evaluation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 83-102.
  88. Demirer, Riza & Pierdzioch, Christian & Zhang, Huacheng, 2017. "On the short-term predictability of stock returns: A quantile boosting approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 35-41.
  89. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Chiang, Thomas C. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2018. "Downside risk and stock returns in the G7 countries: An empirical analysis of their long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 21-32.
  90. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
  91. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2017. "Robustness of Multistep Forecasts and Predictive Regressions at Intermediate and Long Horizons," ESSEC Working Papers WP1710, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  92. Golez, Benjamin & Koudijs, Peter, 2018. "Four centuries of return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 248-263.
  93. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2017. "Predicting international stock returns with conditional price-to-fundamental ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 159-184.
  94. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2021. "Cash conversion cycle and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  95. Yoon, Sun-Joong, 2017. "Time-varying risk aversion and return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 327-339.
  96. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2018. "Maximal predictability under long-term mean reversion," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 269-282.
  97. Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
  98. Valseth, Siri, 2016. "Informed trading in Hybrid Bond Markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/13, University of Stavanger.
  99. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
  100. Huang, Dashan & Li, Jiangyuan & Wang, Liyao & Zhou, Guofu, 2020. "Time series momentum: Is it there?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 774-794.
  101. Deng, Kaihua, 2016. "A refined asymptotic framework for dividend yield in predictive regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 60-63.
  102. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
  103. Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Thomas C. Chiang & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2016. "Downside risk and stock returns: An empirical analysis of the long-run and short-run dynamics from the G-7 Countries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  104. Carlo A. Favero & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographics and the Econometrics of the Term Structure of Stock Market Risk," Working Papers 367, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  105. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2632-2640.
  106. Atanasov, Victoria, 2018. "World output gap and global stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 181-197.
  107. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Richard Priestley, 2012. "Dividend Smoothing and Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1834-1853, October.
  108. Valseth, Siri, 2010. "Forecasting short term yield changes using order flow. Is dealer skill a source of predictability?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2010/12, University of Stavanger.
  109. Chen, Chaoyi & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maynard, Alex & Pesavento, Elena, 2022. "Long-horizon stock valuation and return forecasts based on demographic projections," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-215.
  110. Vu Ngoc Nguyen & Dat Thanh Nguyen, 2020. "Can Crude Oil Price be a Predictor of Stock Index Return? Evidence from Vietnamese Stock Market," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(1), pages 13-21, January.
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