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Citations for "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability"

by Kenneth D. West & Michael W. McCracken

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  1. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA.
  2. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  3. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2002. "Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 397-407.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, . "Evaluating Density Forecasts," CARESS Working Papres 97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  5. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 0214, European Central Bank.
  6. West,K.D., 1999. "Encompassing tests when no model is encompassing," Working papers 36, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  7. Michael W. McCracken, 2012. "Consistent testing for structural change at the ends of the sample," Working Papers 2012-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  9. Giorgio Valente & Daniel Thornton & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Working Papers wp04-12, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  10. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  12. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Huang, Xin, 2011. "A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 176-189, January.
  13. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
  14. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Marmer, Vadim & Tang, Yao, 2009. "Supplement to "Comparison of Misspecified Calibrated Models"," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2009-58, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 03 Feb 2011.
  16. Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society.
  18. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Robust tests of predictive accuracy," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 161-184.
  20. Avramov, Doron, 2002. "Stock return predictability and model uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 423-458, June.
  21. Costas Milas & Philip Rothman, 2007. "Out-of-Sample Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," Working Paper Series 49-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  22. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  23. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the best volatility models: the model confidence set approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  24. Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
  25. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
  26. Owen Lamont, 1999. "Economic Tracking Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 7055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
  28. Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
  29. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Testing for Structural Stability of Factor Augmented Forecasting Models," Departmental Working Papers 201314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  30. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Paper 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  31. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  32. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2007. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US Unemployment," DQE Working Papers 7, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 04 Jun 2008.
  33. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  34. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
  35. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  36. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223.
  37. Lavan Mahadeva & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, . "Testing a DSGE model and its partner database," Borradores de Economia 479, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  38. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
  39. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008.
  40. Valente, Giorgio, 2009. "International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 920-940, October.
  41. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno & Abhay Abhayankar, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," Working Papers wp04-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  42. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
  43. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
  44. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  45. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  46. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2011. "Bootstrap forecast of multivariate VAR models without using the backward representation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws113426, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  47. Sang-Kuck Chung, 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasts of nonlinear long-memory models of the real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 355-370.
  48. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance," Departmental Working Papers 201309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  49. Loffler, Gunter, 2003. "The effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1427-1453, August.
  50. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA.
  51. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
  52. Nicolau, Mihaela & Palomba, Giulio, 2015. "Dynamic relationships between spot and futures prices. The case of energy and gold commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 130-143.
  53. Ferreira, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting the comovements of spot interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 766-792, September.
  54. Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  55. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  56. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Long, Xiangdong, 2009. "Copula-based multivariate GARCH model with uncorrelated dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 207-218, June.
  57. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
  58. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  59. Sánchez, Ismael & Peña, Daniel, 2001. "New in-sample prediction errors in time series with applications," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws011107, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  60. Burak Saltoglu, 2003. "Comparing forecasting ability of parametric and non-parametric methods: an application with Canadian monthly interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 169-176.
  61. Hsiao, Cheng & Wan, Shui Ki, 2011. "Comparison of forecasting methods with an application to predicting excess equity premium," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1235-1246.
  62. Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 0843, European Central Bank.
  63. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  64. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 93(4), pages 3-46, July-Augu.
  65. McCracken, Michael W., 2004. "Parameter estimation and tests of equal forecast accuracy between non-nested models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 503-514.
  66. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  67. Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C., 2009. "A time deformation model and its time-varying autocorrelation: An application to US unemployment data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 128-145.
  68. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2004. "Predictive Density Accuracy Tests," Working Papers wp04-16, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  69. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  70. Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17, June.
  71. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors' Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
  72. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2012. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3980, CESifo Group Munich.
  74. Vadim Marmer, 2005. "Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity and Spurious Forecasts," Econometrics 0503002, EconWPA, revised 15 Dec 2005.
  75. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, 06.
  76. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Inference about predictive ability when there are many predictors," Working Papers w0096, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  77. Clements, M.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Smith, J., 1999. "On SETAR non- linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9914-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  78. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2015-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  79. Sainan Jin & Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2015. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Departmental Working Papers 201502, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  80. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  81. Valeria V. Lakshina, 2014. "The Fluke Of Stochastic Volatility Versus Garch Inevitability : Which Model Creates Better Forecasts?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 37/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  82. Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  83. Ashley, Richard, 2003. "Statistically significant forecasting improvements: how much out-of-sample data is likely necessary?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-239.
  84. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "An Unbiased and Powerful Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2001-06, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  85. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  86. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Mishra, Santosh, 2004. "Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 629-645.
  87. Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers 201229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  88. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  89. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models; A Selective Overview," IMF Working Papers 03/111, International Monetary Fund.
  90. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
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