IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Testing a DSGE model and its partner database

  • Lavan Mahadeva

    ()

  • Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez

    ()

There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But these models typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs. How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early warning test of the database-model match and apply that to a Colombian model. Our test reveals where the combination should work (consumption) and where not (in investment). The test can be adapted to look at many likely sources of DSGE model failure.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra479.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 479.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:479
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Cra 7 # 14-78 Semi-sótano

Phone: (57-1) 3431111
Fax: (57-1) 2841686
Web page: http://www.banrep.gov.co/es/publicaciones-buscador/23
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Adolfson, Malin & Andersson, Michael K. & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," Working Paper Series 188, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
  2. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Working Papers 0715, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  3. Christopher Allsopp & Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2006. "United Kingdom Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F232-F244, 06.
  4. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  5. Andrés González & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: Patacon Model Description," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 222-245, Diciembre.
  6. Basu, S., 1993. "Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare," Papers 93-23, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  7. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  8. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lane, P, 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey," Trinity Economics Papers 993, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2001. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 2944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Whelan, Karl, 2004. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctations," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
  13. Kenneth D. West & Michael W. McCracken, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," NBER Technical Working Papers 0226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Mayer, Thomas, 1975. "Selecting Economic Hypotheses by Goodness of Fit," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 877-83, December.
  15. James G. MacKinnon, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," Working Papers 1028, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  16. Alok Johri and Marc-André Letendre, 2006. "What do “residuals” from first-order conditions reveal about DGE models?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-01, McMaster University.
  17. Mattias Villani & Malin Adolfson & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, March.
  19. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, December.
  21. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
  22. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.