IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Testing a DSGE model and its partner database

  • Lavan Mahadeva

    ()

  • Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez

    ()

There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But these models typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs. How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early warning test of the database-model match and apply that to a Colombian model. Our test reveals where the combination should work (consumption) and where not (in investment). The test can be adapted to look at many likely sources of DSGE model failure.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra479.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 479.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:479
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Cra 7 # 14-78 Piso 7

Phone: (57-1) 3431111
Fax: (57-1) 2841686
Web page: http://www.banrep.gov.co/es/publicaciones-buscador/23
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S2-S18, 09.
  3. Basu, S., 1993. "Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare," Papers 93-23, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  4. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 0583, European Central Bank.
  5. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
  6. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  7. Karl Whelan, 2004. "New evidence on balanced growth, stochastic trends, and economic fluctuations," Open Access publications 10197/218, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  8. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
  9. Andrés González & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodríguez, . "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: PATACON Model Description," Borradores de Economia 656, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. West, K.D. & McCracken, M.W., 1997. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," Working papers 9710, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  11. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Working Papers 13166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Adolfson, Malin & Andersson, Michael K. & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," Working Paper Series 188, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
  14. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, October.
  15. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  17. Alok Johri and Marc-André Letendre, 2006. "What do “residuals” from first-order conditions reveal about DGE models?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-01, McMaster University.
  18. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
  19. Christopher Allsopp & Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2006. "United Kingdom Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F232-F244, 06.
  20. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 190, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
  21. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Mayer, Thomas, 1975. "Selecting Economic Hypotheses by Goodness of Fit," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 877-83, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.