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Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Inference for Markov-regime switching models of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  2. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie & Sunčica Vujić, 2012. "Youth Crime and Education Expansion," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(4), pages 366-384, November.
  3. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J. & Schlichter, F., 2009. "Electricity portfolio management : Optimal peak/off-peak allocations," Other publications TiSEM f880b2e6-c56c-483c-9334-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Mari, Carlo & Cananà, Lucianna, 2012. "Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1481-1488.
  5. Fanelli, Viviana & Maddalena, Lucia & Musti, Silvana, 2016. "Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-102.
  6. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Nicolás, 2014. "The modeling and forecasting of extreme events in electricity spot markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 477-490.
  7. Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
  8. Kanamura, Takashi & O[combining macron]hashi, Kazuhiko, 2008. "On transition probabilities of regime switching in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1158-1172, May.
  9. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
  10. De Sanctis, Angela & Mari, Carlo, 2007. "Modelling spikes in electricity markets using excitable dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 457-467.
  11. repec:eee:energy:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:887-902 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Sandro Sapio, 2012. "Modeling the distribution of day-ahead electricity returns: a comparison," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1935-1949, December.
  13. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
  14. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2007. "A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices," Working Papers 20070901, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
  15. Heikki Peura & Derek W. Bunn, 2015. "Dynamic Pricing of Peak Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1262-1279, December.
  16. Eichler, M. & Türk, D., 2013. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 614-624.
  17. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2012. "The inevitability of capacity underinvestment in competitive electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 62-77.
  18. Pawel Maryniak & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Forecasting the occurrence of electricity price spikes in the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  19. repec:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:3:p:193:d:65782 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald & Schlichter, Felix, 2009. "Electricity portfolio management: Optimal peak/off-peak allocations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 169-174, January.
  21. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
  22. Rasmussen, Lisa Buth & Bacher, Peder & Madsen, Henrik & Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg & Heerup, Christian & Green, Torben, 2016. "Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 32-40.
  23. Kosater, Peter, 2006. "On the impact of weather on German hourly power prices," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 1/06, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
  24. Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew, 2008. "Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3172-3185, November.
  25. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
  26. A. Stan Hurn & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2016. "A Smooth Transition Logit Model of The Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 707-733, June.
  27. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
  28. Eichler Michael & Grothe Oliver & Tuerk Dennis & Manner Hans, 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  29. Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
  30. Muche, Thomas, 2009. "A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4851-4862, November.
  31. Gerster, Andreas, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: The role of energy policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 636, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  32. Yepes Rodri­guez, Ramón, 2008. "Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1909-1932, July.
  33. Liebl, Dominik, 2010. "Modeling hourly Electricity Spot Market Prices as non stationary functional times series," MPRA Paper 25017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Mari, Carlo & Tondini, Daniela, 2010. "Regime switches induced by supply–demand equilibrium: a model for power-price dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4819-4827.
  35. Andreas Gerster, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 271-289, December.
  36. Zachmann, Georg, 2013. "A stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 5-13.
  37. Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 1-27, March.
  38. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2006. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Europe," Working Papers 20061001, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
  39. Halkos, George & Tzirivis, Apostolos, 2018. "Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," MPRA Paper 90781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Rangga Handika & Chi Truong & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Modelling price spikes in electricity markets - the impact of load, weather and capacity," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  41. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
  42. Carlo Lucheroni, 2012. "A hybrid SETARX model for spikes in tight electricity markets," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 1, pages 13-49.
  43. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
  44. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
  45. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Jay Zarnikau, Jack Moore, Brendan Schneiderman, Tony Ho, and Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  46. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  47. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Forecasting spot price volatility using the short-term forward curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1826-1833.
  48. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  49. repec:aen:journl:ej38-4-hurn is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices," MPRA Paper 26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Lindström, Erik & Norén, Vicke & Madsen, Henrik, 2015. "Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A stability analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 239-246.
  52. repec:spr:compst:v:79:y:2014:i:1:p:1-30 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.
  54. Rubin, Ofir David, 2010. "Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  55. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:594-605 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Joanna Janczura, 2012. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model," Papers 1203.5442, arXiv.org.
  57. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
  58. Lars Ivar Hagfors & Hilde Hørthe Kamperud & Florentina Paraschiv & Marcel Prokopczuk & Alma Sator & Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Prediction of extreme price occurrences in the German day-ahead electricity market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1929-1948, December.
  59. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
  60. Mehtap Kilic & Elisa Trujillo-Baute, 2014. "The stabilizing effect of hydro reservoir levels on intraday power prices under wind forecast errors," Working Papers 2014/30, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  61. Alexander Boogert & Dominique Dupont, 2007. "When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0707, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  62. Frank Asche & Atle Oglend & Petter Osmundsen, 2013. "UK Natural Gas: Gas-Specific or Oil Driven Pricing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4503, CESifo Group Munich.
  63. Huisman, R., 2007. "The Influence of Temperature on Spike Probability in Day-Ahead Power Prices," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-039-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  64. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
  65. DeBenedictis, A. & Hoff, T.E. & Price, S. & Woo, C.K., 2010. "Statistically adjusted engineering (SAE) modeling of metered roof-top photovoltaic (PV) output: California evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4178-4183.
  66. Mehtap Kilic & Elisa Trujillo-Baute, 2014. "The stabilizing effect of hydro reservoir levels on intraday power prices under wind forecast errors," Working Papers 2014/30, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  67. repec:eee:rensus:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:456-467 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Bosco, Bruno & Parisio, Lucia & Pelagatti, Matteo & Baldi, Fabio, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," International Energy Markets Working Papers 7438, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  69. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
  70. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.
  71. repec:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:531-543 is not listed on IDEAS
  72. repec:eee:enepol:v:117:y:2018:i:c:p:263-277 is not listed on IDEAS
  73. Tishler, Asher & Milstein, Irena & Woo, Chi-Keung, 2008. "Capacity commitment and price volatility in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1625-1647, July.
  74. Stefan Thoenes, 2014. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
  75. Adam Clements & Joanne Fuller & Stan Hurn, 2013. "Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 508-521, December.
  76. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Yi-Hsien Wang, & Chang, Matthew C. & Shih, Kuang-Hsun & Hsiu-Hsueh Kao,, 2011. "Minimum variance hedging with bivariate regime-switching model for WTI crude oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3050-3057.
  77. Huisman, Ronald, 2008. "The influence of temperature on spike probability in day-ahead power prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2697-2704, September.
  78. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
  79. Kalantzis, Fotis & Sakellaris, Kostis, 2012. "Investigating the Impact of the Greek Electricity Market Reforms on its Day-Ahead Market Prices," MPRA Paper 37794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Realized volatility and price spikes in electricity markets: The importance of observation frequency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1809-1818.
  81. Niu, Shilei & Insley, Margaret, 2016. "An options pricing approach to ramping rate restrictions at hydro power plants," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 25-52.
  82. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
  83. Rocha, Paula & Kuhn, Daniel, 2012. "Multistage stochastic portfolio optimisation in deregulated electricity markets using linear decision rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 397-408.
  84. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  85. Ignatieva Katja, 2014. "A nonparametric model for spot price dynamics and pricing of futures contracts in electricity markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(5), pages 1-23, December.
  86. Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.
  87. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:323-336 is not listed on IDEAS
  88. Thoenes, Stefan, 2011. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," EWI Working Papers 2011-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  89. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Price regimes in an energy island: Tacit collusion vs. cost and network explanations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 157-172.
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