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Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011

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  • Stefan Thoenes

Abstract

This paper shows how the effect of fuel prices varies with the level of electricity demand. It analyzes the relationship between daily prices of electricity, natural gas and carbon emission allowances with a semiparametric varying smooth coefficient cointegration model. Different electricity generation technologies have distinct fuel price dependencies, which allows estimating the structure of the power plant portfolio by exploiting market prices. The semiparametric model indicates a technology switch from coal to gas at roughly 85% of maximum demand. This model is used to analyze the market impact of the nuclear moratorium by the German Government in March 2011. Futures prices of electricity, natural gas and emission allowances are used to show that the market efficiently accounts for the suspended capacity and correctly expects that several nuclear plants will not be switched on after the moratorium.

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  • Stefan Thoenes, 2014. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(4), pages 61-78, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:35:y:2014:i:4:p:61-78
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.4.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2009. "Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 482-491, May.
    2. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
    3. Kanamura, Takashi & Ohashi, Kazuhiko, 2007. "A structural model for electricity prices with spikes: Measurement of spike risk and optimal policies for hydropower plant operation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1010-1032, September.
    4. Binder, John J, 1998. "The Event Study Methodology since 1969," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 111-137, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lynch, Arthur & Perez, Yannick & Gabriel, Sophie & Mathonniere, Gilles, 2022. "Nuclear fleet flexibility: Modeling and impacts on power systems with renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).

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