IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v35y2014i4p61-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Thoenes

Abstract

This paper shows how the effect of fuel prices varies with the level of electricity demand. It analyzes the relationship between daily prices of electricity, natural gas and carbon emission allowances with a semiparametric varying smooth coefficient cointegration model. Different electricity generation technologies have distinct fuel price dependencies, which allows estimating the structure of the power plant portfolio by exploiting market prices. The semiparametric model indicates a technology switch from coal to gas at roughly 85% of maximum demand. This model is used to analyze the market impact of the nuclear moratorium by the German Government in March 2011. Futures prices of electricity, natural gas and emission allowances are used to show that the market efficiently accounts for the suspended capacity and correctly expects that several nuclear plants will not be switched on after the moratorium.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Thoenes, 2014. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(4), pages 61-78, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:35:y:2014:i:4:p:61-78
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.4.3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.35.4.3
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.35.4.3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
    2. Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2009. "Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 482-491, May.
    3. Kanamura, Takashi & Ohashi, Kazuhiko, 2007. "A structural model for electricity prices with spikes: Measurement of spike risk and optimal policies for hydropower plant operation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1010-1032, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lynch, Arthur & Perez, Yannick & Gabriel, Sophie & Mathonniere, Gilles, 2022. "Nuclear fleet flexibility: Modeling and impacts on power systems with renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Thoenes, 2014. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    2. Thoenes, Stefan, 2011. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," EWI Working Papers 2011-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    3. Kanamura, Takashi & O[combining macron]hashi, Kazuhiko, 2008. "On transition probabilities of regime switching in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1158-1172, May.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald & Schlichter, Felix, 2009. "Electricity portfolio management: Optimal peak/off-peak allocations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 169-174, January.
    7. Rangga Handika & Chi Truong & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Modelling price spikes in electricity markets - the impact of load, weather and capacity," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    8. Alexander Boogert & Dominique Dupont, 2007. "When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0707, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    9. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Camadan, Ercument & Erten, Ibrahim Etem & Zhang, Alex Hongliang, 2023. "Market failure or politics? Understanding the motives behind regulatory actions to address surging electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    10. Muche, Thomas, 2009. "A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4851-4862, November.
    11. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Tang, Ou & Sahamkhadam, Maziar & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yahya, Muhammad & Cerin, Pontus & Rehme, Jakob, 2021. "Analysis of Forecasting Models in an Electricity Market under Volatility," ADBI Working Papers 1212, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Böckers, Veit & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2014. "The extent of European power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 102-111.
    14. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
    15. Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew, 2008. "Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3172-3185, November.
    16. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    17. Karakatsani Nektaria V & Bunn Derek W., 2010. "Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
    18. Lyu, Chenyan & Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Volatility spillovers and carbon price in the Nordic wholesale electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Andreas Gerster, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 271-289, December.
    20. Zachmann, Georg, 2013. "A stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 5-13.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:35:y:2014:i:4:p:61-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.