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Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011

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  • Thoenes, Stefan

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

This paper shows how the effect of fuel prices varies with the level of electricity demand. It analyzes the relationship between daily prices of electricity, natural gas and carbon emission allowances with a vector error correction model and a semiparametric varying smooth coef- ficient model. The results indicate that the electricity price adapts to fuel price changes in a long-term cointegration relationship. Different electricity generation technologies have distinct fuel price dependencies, which allows estimating the structure of the power plant portfolio by exploiting market prices. The semiparametric model indicates a technology switch from coal to gas at roughly 85% of maximum demand. It is used to analyze the market impact of the nuclear moratorium by the German Government in March 2011. Futures prices show that the market efficiently accounts for the suspended capacity and expects that several nuclear plants will not be switched on after the moratorium.

Suggested Citation

  • Thoenes, Stefan, 2011. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," EWI Working Papers 2011-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_006
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    File URL: http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Publikationen/Working_Paper/EWI_WP_11-06_Understanding_electricity_prices.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Danielle Devogelaer & Benoît Laine, 2016. "Working Paper 09-16 - Drivers of wholesale electricity prices in a small, open economy - Some evidence from the nuclear restart in Belgium
      [Working Paper 09-16 - Marché de l’électricité : facteurs
      ," Working Papers 1609, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    2. Lips, Johannes, 2016. "Do they still matter? – Impact of Fossil Fuels on Electricity Prices in the Light of Increased Renewable Generation," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145601, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Ketterer, Janina C., 2014. "The impact of wind power generation on the electricity price in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-280.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Market; Merit Order; Cointegration; Varying Coefficient; Nuclear Moratorium;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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