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EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Approach

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  • Fell, Harrison

    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

A cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is estimated to determine the dynamic relationship between Nordic wholesale electricity prices and EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) CO2 allowance prices. An impulse response analysis reveals that electricity prices have large short-term responses to CO2 price shocks, but that this response dampens over time. Using hourly Nordic electricity spot market prices, I find that the value of short-term response of electricity prices to a shock in CO2 prices in off-peak hours is consistent with expected values for near complete pass-through of CO2 emission costs when coal-generated power is at the margin. Likewise, the estimates reveal that peak hour electricity price responses to CO2 price shocks are as expected for a market that has near complete passthrough of CO2 emission costs when natural gas-generated power is at the margin. These results further suggest the Nordic electricity market is pricing as a competitive market.

Suggested Citation

  • Fell, Harrison, 2008. "EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Approach," RFF Working Paper Series dp-08-31, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-31
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-08-31.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Quirion, 2009. "Historic versus output-based allocation of GHG tradable allowances: a comparison," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 575-592, November.
    2. Golombek, Rolf & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2013. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 568-580.
    3. Botterud, Audun & Kristiansen, Tarjei & Ilic, Marija D., 2010. "The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 967-978, September.
    4. M. Cummins, 2013. "Multiple comparisons problem: Recent advances applied to energy and emissions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(9), pages 903-909, June.
    5. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Solier, Boris, 2013. "An overview of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1370-1376.
    6. Charles Holt & Erica Myers & Markus Wrake & Dallas Burtraw & Svante Mandell, 2010. "Teaching Opportunity Cost in an Emissions Permit Experiment," International Review of Economic Education, Economics Network, University of Bristol, vol. 9(2), pages 34-42.
    7. Alexeeva-Talebi, Victoria, 2011. "Cost pass-through of the EU emissions allowances: Examining the European petroleum markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 75-83.
    8. Markus Wråke & Erica Myers & Dallas Burtraw & Svante Mandell & Charles Holt, 2010. "Opportunity Cost for Free Allocations of Emissions Permits: An Experimental Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(3), pages 331-336, July.
    9. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "CO 2 emission allowances and other fuel markets interaction," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 259-281, September.
    10. Wråke, Markus & Myers, Erica & Mandell, Svante & Holt, Charles & Burtraw, Dallas, 2008. "Pricing Strategies under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-08-49, Resources for the Future.
    11. Beat Hintermann, 2011. "Market Power, Permit Allocation and Efficiency in Emission Permit Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 327-349, July.
    12. Kim, Wook & Chattopadhyay, Deb & Park, Jong-bae, 2010. "Impact of carbon cost on wholesale electricity price: A note on price pass-through issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3441-3448.
    13. Yu, Haisan, 2010. "The EU ETS and Firm Profits: An Ex-post Analysis for Swedish Energy Firms," Working Paper Series 2011:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    14. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Kažukauskas, Andrius, 2013. "The profitability of electricity generating firms and policies promoting renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 858-865.
    15. Thoenes, Stefan, 2011. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," EWI Working Papers 2011-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    16. Mauritzen, Johannes, 2011. "Dead Battery? Wind Power, The Spot Market, and Hydro Power Interaction in the Nordic Electricity Market," Discussion Papers 2011/16, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegrated vector autoregression; impulse response; electricity markets; CO2 cost pass-through; EU-ETS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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