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Wages and the value of nonemployment

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  • Simon Jäger
  • Benjamin Schoefer
  • Samuel Young
  • Josef Zweimüller

Abstract

Nonemployment is often posited as a worker's outside option in wage setting models such as bargaining and wage posting. The value of this state is therefore a fundamental determinant of wages and, in turn, labor supply and job creation. We measure the effect of changes in the value of nonemployment on wages in existing jobs and among job switchers. Our quasi-experimental variation in nonemployment values arises from four large reforms of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit levels in Austria. We document that wages are insensitive to UI benefit levels: point estimates imply a wage response of less than $0.01 per $1.00 UI benefit increase, and we can reject sensitivities larger than 0.03. In contrast, a calibrated Nash bargaining model predicts a sensitivity of 0.39 – more than ten times larger. The empirical insensitivity holds even among workers with a priori low bargaining power, with low labor force attachment, with high predicted unemployment duration, among job switchers and recently unemployed workers, in areas of high unemployment, in firms with flexible pay policies, and when considering firm-level bargaining. The insensitivity of wages to the nonemployment value we document presents a puzzle to widely used wage setting protocols, and implies that nonemployment may not constitute workers' relevant threat point. Our evidence supports wage-setting mechanisms that insulate wages from the value of nonemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Jäger & Benjamin Schoefer & Samuel Young & Josef Zweimüller, 2018. "Wages and the value of nonemployment," ECON - Working Papers 313, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:313
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    12. Brendon McConnell, 2023. "What's Logs Got to do With it: On the Perils of log Dependent Variables and Difference-in-Differences," Papers 2308.00167, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    13. Demidova, O. & Timofeeva, E., 2021. "Spatial aspects of wage curve estimation in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 69-101.
    14. Andreas Hornstein & Marios Karabarbounis & Andre Kurmann & Etienne Lale & Lien Ta, 2023. "Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits," Working Paper 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Green, David & Kesselman, Jonathan Rhys & Tedds, Lindsay M., 2021. "Covering All the Basics: Reforms for a More Just Society," MPRA Paper 105902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Yusuf Mercan & Benjamin Schoefer & Petr Sedláček, 2020. "A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 8731, CESifo.
    17. David A. Green, 2023. "Basic income and the labour market: Labour supply, precarious work and technological change," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1195-1220, November.
    18. Mertens, Matthias & Müller, Steffen & Neuschäffer, Georg, 2022. "Identifying rent-sharing using firms' energy input mix," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Mertens, Matthias & Mottironi, Bernardo, 2023. "Do larger firms exert more market power? Markups and markdowns along the size distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. repec:thr:techub:10025:y:2021:i:1:p:192-218 is not listed on IDEAS
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    22. Lark, Olga & Videnord, Josefin, 2023. "Do Exporters Import Gender Inequality?," Working Papers 2023:6, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wages; bargaining; unemployment benefits; nonemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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