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Supply Side Hysterisis: The Case of the Canadian Unemployment InsuranceSystem

  • Thomas Lemieux
  • W. Bentley MacLeod

This paper presents results from a 1971 natural experiment carried out by the Canadian government on the unemployment insurance system. At that time, they dramatically increased the generosity of the system. We find that the propensity to collect UI increases with a first time exposure to the system. Hence as more individuals experience unemployment their lifetime use of the system increases. This supply side hysterisis effect may explain why unemployment has steadily increased over the 1972 - 1992 period, even though the generosity of unemployment insurance did not.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6732.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6732.

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Date of creation: Sep 1998
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Publication status: published as Lemieux, Thomas and W. Bentley MacLeod. "Supply Side Hysteresis: The Case Of The Canadian Unemployment Insurance System," Journal of Public Economics, 2000, v78(1-2,Oct), 139-170.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6732
Note: PE LS
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  1. David Card & W. Craig Riddell, 1993. "A Comparative Analysis of Unemployment in Canada and the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States, pages 149-190 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
  3. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
  4. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Miles Corak, 1993. "Unemployment Insurance Once Again: The Incidence of Repeat Participation in the Canadian UI Program," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 19(2), pages 162-176, June.
  6. Aaron S. Yelowitz, 1996. "Did Recent Medicaid Reforms Cause the Caseload Explosion in the Food Stamp Program?," UCLA Economics Working Papers 756, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Bruce D. Meyer & Dan T. Rosenbaum, 1996. "Repeat Use of Unemployment Insurance," NBER Working Papers 5423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Thomas Lemieux & W. Bentley MacLeod, 1997. "Supply Side Hysteresis: The Case of the Canadian Unemployment Insurance System," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 340., Boston College Department of Economics.
  9. Katz, Lawrence F & Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations, and Unemployment Outcomes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 973-1002, November.
  10. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August.
  11. John C. Ham & Samuel Rea, 1986. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Working Papers 592, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  12. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 211.
  13. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
  14. Lindbeck, Assar, 1995. "Welfare State Disincentives with Endogenous Habits and Norms," Working Paper Series 441, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  15. Bloom, H. & Fink, B. & Lui-Gurr, S. & Bancroft, W. & Tattrie, D., 1997. "Implementing the Earnings Supplement Project: A Test of a Re-employment Incentive," Papers r-98-1a, Gouvernement du Canada - Human Resources Development.
  16. Topel, Robert H, 1983. "On Layoffs and Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 541-59, September.
  17. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1993. "Simulation-based inference : A survey with special reference to panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 5-33, September.
  18. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-18, May.
  19. Green, David A & Riddell, W Craig, 1993. "The Economic Effects of Unemployment Insurance in Canada: An Empirical Analysis of UI Disentitlement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages S96-147, January.
  20. Farber, Henry S, 1994. "The Analysis of Interfirm Worker Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 554-93, October.
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