IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cauewp/201608.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shadow banking, financial regulation and animal spirits: An ACE approach

Author

Listed:
  • Krug, Sebastian
  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

Abstract

Over the past decades, the framework for financing has experienced a fundamental shift from traditional bank lending towards a broader market-based financing of financial assets. As a consequence, regulated banks increasingly focus on coping with regulatory requirements meaning that the resulting funding gap for the real economy is left to the unregulated part of the financial system, i.e. to shadow banks highly relying on securitization and repos. Unfortunately, economic history has shown that unregulated financial intermediation exposes the economy to destabilizing externalities in terms of excessive systemic risk. The arising question is now whether and how it is possible to internalize these externalities via financial regulation. We aim to shed light on this issue by using an agent-based computational macro-model as experimental lab. The model is augmented with a shadow banking sector representing an alternative investment opportunity for the real sector which shows animal spirit-like, i.e. highly pro-cyclical and myopic, behavior in its investment decision. We find that an unilateral inclusion of shadow banks into the regulatory framework, i.e. without access to central bank liquidity, has negative effects on monetary policy goals, significantly increases the volatility in growth rates and that its disrupting character materializes in increasing default rates and a higher volatility in the credit-to-GDP gap. However, experiments with a full inclusion, i.e. with access to a lender of last resort, lead to superior outcomes relative to the benchmark without shadow banking activity. Moreover, our results highlight the central role of the access to contagion-free, alternative sources of liquidity within the shadow banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Krug, Sebastian & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Shadow banking, financial regulation and animal spirits: An ACE approach," Economics Working Papers 2016-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/142158/1/861406419.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2013. "A Model of Shadow Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1331-1363, August.
    2. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    3. Roland Meeks & Benjamin Nelson & Piergiorgio Alessandri, 2017. "Shadow Banks and Macroeconomic Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1483-1516, October.
    4. Aymanns, Christoph & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2015. "The dynamics of the leverage cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 155-179.
    5. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    6. Galati, Gabriele & Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & Vlekke, Marente, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 83-87.
    7. R. P. Agenor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 198-243, September.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Galbiati, Marco & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2011. "An agent-based model of payment systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 859-875, June.
    10. Adrian, T. & Shin, H S., 2009. "The shadow banking system: implications for fi nancial regulation," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 1-10, September.
    11. Gianfranco A. Vento & Pasquale Ganga, 2013. "Shadow Banking and Systemic Risk: In Search of Regulatory Solutions," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Juan Fernández Guevara Radoselovics & José Manuel Pastor Monsálvez (ed.), Crisis, Risk and Stability in Financial Markets, chapter 5, pages 96-115, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    13. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    14. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    15. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    16. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft, 2012. "Shadow Banking Regulation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 99-140, October.
    17. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    18. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2015. "The agent-based Solow growth model with endogenous business cycles," Economics Working Papers 2015-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    19. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
    20. Perry Mehrling, 2012. "Three Principles for Market-Based Credit Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 107-112, May.
    21. David Luttrell & Harvey Rosenblum & Jackson Thies, 2012. "Understanding the risks inherent in shadow banking: a primer and practical lessons learned," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov.
    22. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    23. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Anil K. Kashyap & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2019. "Financial Regulation In General Equilibrium," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 3, pages 27-77, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    24. Luca Arciero & Claudia Biancotti & Leandro D'Aurizio & Claudio Impenna, 2009. "Exploring Agent-Based Methods for the Analysis of Payment Systems: A Crisis Model for StarLogo TNG," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-2.
    25. Guillaume Plantin, 2015. "Shadow Banking and Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 146-175.
    26. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "It’s Broke, Let’s Fix It: Rethinking Financial Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 277-330, December.
    27. Gara Afonso & Ricardo Lagos, 2015. "The Over‐the‐Counter Theory of the Fed Funds Market: A Primer," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S2), pages 127-154, June.
    28. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    29. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    30. Arnold, Bruce & Borio, Claudio & Ellis, Luci & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2012. "Systemic risk, macroprudential policy frameworks, monitoring financial systems and the evolution of capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3125-3132.
    31. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2015. "Towards a Macroprudential Policy in the EU," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Elena Beccalli & Federica Poli (ed.), Bank Risk, Governance and Regulation, chapter 7, pages 182-205, Palgrave Macmillan.
    32. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    33. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    34. Till Strohsal & Christian R. Proaño & Jürgen Wolters, 2015. "How Do Financial Cycles Interact? Evidence from the US and the UK," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-024, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    35. McLeay, Michael & Radia, Amar & Thomas, Ryland, 2014. "Money in the modern economy: an introduction," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 4-13.
    36. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    37. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
    38. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 305-332, October.
    40. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    41. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    42. Kelsey, Ed & Rickenbach, Simon, 2014. "Enhancing the resilience of the Bank of England’s Real-Time Gross Settlement infrastructure," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(3), pages 316-320.
    43. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. Sebastian Krug & Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2014. "The impact of Basel III on financial (in)stability: an agent-based credit network approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 1917-1932, December.
    45. Eric Rosengren, 2014. "Broker-dealer finance and financial stability," Speech 85, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    46. Julia Giese & Henrik Andersen & Oliver Bush & Christian Castro & Marc Farag & Sujit Kapadia, 2014. "The Credit‐To‐Gdp Gap And Complementary Indicators For Macroprudential Policy: Evidence From The Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 25-47, January.
    47. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    48. Claudio Borio, 2014. "Monetary policy and financial stability: what role in prevention and recovery?," BIS Working Papers 440, Bank for International Settlements.
    49. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
    50. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2014. "Towards A Macroprudential Policy In The Eu: Main Issues," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 14110, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    51. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 205-224, June.
    52. Zoltan Pozsar, 2014. "Shadow Banking: The Money View," Working Papers 14-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    53. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    54. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    55. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    56. Thomas M. Hoenig, 1996. "Rethinking financial regulation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q II), pages 5-13.
    57. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2010. "Regulating the Shadow Banking System," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 261-312.
    58. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2013. "The Federal Reserve and Panic Prevention: The Roles of Financial Regulation and Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 45-64, Fall.
    59. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2014. "Frictions in Shadow Banking: Evidence from the Lending Behavior of Money Market Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(6), pages 1717-1750.
    60. Richard Bookstaber, 2012. "Using Agent-Based Models for Analyzing Threats to Financial Stability," Working Papers 12-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    61. Adi Sunderam, 2015. "Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 939-977.
    62. Olivier J Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2013. "Rethinking Macro Policy II; Getting Granular," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Bardoscia & Adrian Carro & Marc Hinterschweiger & Mauro Napoletano & Lilit Popoyan & Andrea Roventini & Arzu Uluc, 2024. "The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: Insights from an agent-based model," Working Papers 118, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Krug, Sebastian, 2018. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks 'lean against the wind' to foster macro-financial stability?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-69.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Li, Boyao, 2017. "The impact of the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio on macroeconomic stability: An agent-based approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Federico Lubello & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2017. "Capturing macroprudential regulation effectiveness: A DSGE approach with shadow intermediaries," BCL working papers 114, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    8. Lilit Popoyan, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy: a Blessing or a Curse?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).
    9. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    10. Gebauer Stefan, 2021. "Welfare-Based Optimal Macroprudential Policy with Shadow Banks," Working papers 817, Banque de France.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Tobias Adrian, 2015. "Financial Stability Monitoring," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 357-395, December.
    14. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
    15. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    17. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    18. Fabio Verona & Manuel M. F. Martins & Inês Drumond, 2014. "Financial Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," CEF.UP Working Papers 1402, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2022. "The fall in shadow banking and the slow U.S. recovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    22. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, September.
    23. Sebastian Krug & Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2014. "The impact of Basel III on financial (in)stability: an agent-based credit network approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 1917-1932, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow Banking; Financial Stability; Monetary Economics; Macroprudential Policy; Financial Regulation; Agent-based Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vakiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.