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Trade Restrictions and Conflict Commodities: Market Reactions to Regulations on Conflict Minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo

  • William Seitz

In this paper, I use an event study approach to investigate the claim that conflict minerals legislation in the United States (US) led to a ban on some mining exports from the Democratic Republc of the Congo (DRC), and that the passage of US regulation caused a ban on both production and trade by regulators in the DRC several months later. I als oconsider the assertion that conflict minerals legislation imposed severe costs for companies that report to the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US. I find that returns for some companis traded on US stock exchanges were sensitive to changes in production in the DRC after the proposed legislation became law in the US. This either suggests that some financial market participants did not expect an immediate full embargo on newly-regulated Congolese mining and trading activities, or that market participants did not expect trade to be halted indefinitely. Reactions to a DRC-imposed ban on production were statistically significant; indicating that addtional reductions in trade were not fully anticipated by financial market participants after regulations became law in the US. I also find that among metal and gold mining companies traded on US exchanges, returns were abnormally high when conflict mineral legislation became more probable. Electronic communication manufacturing firms, which as a group were a target for many supporters of conflict mineral regulations, experienced no systematically abnormal returns corresponding to important dates in the US legislative process that I consider, but experienced abnormally positive returns coinciding with the ban on mining in the eastern DRC.

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Paper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 102.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:102
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  1. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
  2. Kaempfer, William H. & Lehman, James A. & Lowenberg, Anton D., 1987. "Divestment, investment sanctions, and disinvestment: an evaluation of anti-apartheid policy instruments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(03), pages 457-473, June.
  3. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Gylfi Zoega, 2002. "Inequality and Economic Growth: Do Natural Resources Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 712, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Taehee Whang, 2010. "Structural estimation of economic sanctions: From initiation to outcomes," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 561-573, September.
  5. Stefano DellaVigna & Eliana La Ferrara, 2010. "Detecting Illegal Arms Trade," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 26-57, November.
  6. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1990. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: 2nd Edition," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 82.
  7. Hossein Askari & John Forrer & Jiawen Yang & Tarek Hachem, 2005. "Measuring Vulnerability to U.S. Foreign Economic Sanctions," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 41-55, April.
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