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The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence from Swedish Microdata

Author

Listed:
  • Finck, David

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Klein, Mathias

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Tillmann, Peter

    (University of Giessen)

Abstract

We compile a unique dataset linking micro price data underlying the official Swedish producer price index with administrative firm level data and provide new evidence on the inflationary effects of global supply chain shocks. For identification, we interact exogenous shocks to global supply chains, obtained through a VAR model, with firm specific import shares. Shocks to global supply chains lead to a signif icant and persistent increase in producer prices with a peak response after two years. Importantly, average responses mask heterogeneous responses across firms. Relatively larger firms, firms with lower labor costs and a higher market share raise prices more strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Finck, David & Klein, Mathias & Tillmann, Peter, 2026. "The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence from Swedish Microdata," Working Paper Series 470, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0470
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts

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