IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ethanol Expansion and the Indirect Land Use Change in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza
  • Horridge, Mark

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) effects of ethanol production expansion in Brazil through the use of an inter-regional, bottom-up, dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated with the 2005 Brazilian I-O table. A new methodology to deal with ILUC effects is developed, using a transition matrix of land uses calibrated with Agricultural Censuses data. Agriculture and land use are modeled separately in each of 15 Brazilian regions with different agricultural mix. This regional detail captures a good deal of the differences in soil, climate and history that cause particular land to be used for particular purposes. Brazilian land area data distinguish three broad types of agricultural land use, Crop, Pasture, and Plantation Forestry. Between one year and the next the model allows land to move between those categories, or for Unused land to convert to one of these three, driven initially by the transition matrix, changing land supply for agriculture between years. The transition matrix shows Markov probabilities that a particular hectare of land used in one year for some use would be in an other use next period. These probabilities are modified endogenously in the model according to the average unit rentals of each land type in each region. A simulation with ethanol expansion scenario is performed for year 2020, in which land supply is allowed to increase only in states located in the agricultural frontier. Results show that the ILUC effects of ethanol expansion are of the order of 0.14 hectare of new land coming from previously unused land for each new hectare of sugar cane. This value is higher than values found in the Brazilian literature. ILUC effects for pastures are around 0.47. Finally, regional differences in sugarcane productivity are found to be important elements in ILUC effects of sugar cane expansion.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2011. "Ethanol Expansion and the Indirect Land Use Change in Brazil," Conference papers 332079, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332079/files/5274.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Will Martin, 2011. "Costs of Taxation and Benefits of Public Goods with Multiple Taxes and Goods," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 13(2), pages 289-309, April.
    2. Joseph Francois & Will Martin, 2003. "Formula Approaches for Market Access Negotiations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 1-28, January.
    3. Hillman, Arye L, 1982. "Declining Industries and Political-Support Protectionist Motives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1180-1187, December.
    4. Pushan Dutt & Devashish Mitra, 2016. "Political Ideology And Endogenous Trade Policy: An Empirical Investigation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Trade Policy Theory, Evidence and Applications, chapter 5, pages 95-108, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Anderson, James E & Neary, J Peter, 1992. "Trade Reform with Quotas, Partial Rent Retention, and Tariffs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 57-76, January.
    6. Anderson, James E. & Neary, J. Peter, 2007. "Welfare versus market access: The implications of tariff structure for tariff reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 187-205, March.
    7. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2010. "Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Internal Migrations in Brazil," Conference papers 331926, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Turunen-Red, Arja H & Woodland, Alan D, 1991. "Strict Pareto-Improving Multilateral Reforms of Tariffs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1127-1152, July.
    9. Martin,Will & Winters,L. Alan (ed.), 1996. "The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586016, September.
    10. Boumellassa, Houssein & Debucquet, David Laborde & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2009. "A picture of tariff protection across the World in 2004: MAcMap-HS6, Version 2," IFPRI discussion papers 903, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Hillman, Arye L, 1984. "Declining Industries and Political-Support Protectionist Motives: Errata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 260-260, March.
    12. Kohli, Ulrich, 1993. "A Symmetric Normalized Quadratic GNP Function and the U.S. Demand for Imports and Supply of Exports," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 243-255, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Mark Horridge, 2021. "Biome Composition in Deforestation Deterrence and GHG Emissions in Brazil," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 13, pages 419-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Lorenzo Capecchi & Lorenzo Nissen & Monica Modesto & Giuseppe Di Girolamo & Luciano Cavani & Lorenzo Barbanti, 2017. "Crop Factors Influencing Ethanol Production from Sorghum Juice and Bagasse," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    3. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & Frédéric Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 48-63, January.
    4. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2012. "Endogenous Land Use and Supply, and Food Security in Brazil," Conference papers 332215, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Palmer, Charles & di Falco, Salvatore, 2013. "Dynamics of indirect land-use change: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 377-393.
    6. Elisa Dunkelberg & Matthias Finkbeiner, 2019. "Inter-Crops-Allocation (ICA) of CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 18(1), pages 20-27, March.
    7. Ferreira, J.B. De Souza Filho & De Faria, V. Guidotti & Guedes Pinto, L.F. & Sparovek, G., 2018. "Economic and Social Impacts of Deforestation reduction in Brazil," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277084, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Ryan Goodrich, 2020. "Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 497-523, September.
    9. Mariano, Marc Jim M. & Giesecke, James A., 2014. "The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-361.
    10. Alla A. Golub & Thomas W. Hertel, 2012. "Modeling Land-Use Change Impacts Of Biofuels In The Gtap-Bio Framework," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-30.
    11. Rasetti, Michele & Ferreira, Joaquim B.S., Filho & Finco, Adele & Pena-Levano, Luis M. & Zhao, Xin & Opgrand, Jeffrey, 2015. "Economic and Environmental Effects of the European Biofuel Policy," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212489, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Jonathan Gonçalves Da Silva & Joaquim Bento De Souza Ferreira Filho, 2016. "Climate Change, Agriculture And Livestock Intensification In Brazil: The Borlaug Hypothesis," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 184, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 379-475, Elsevier.
    14. Deborah Bentivoglio & Adele Finco & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2016. "Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Marc Jim M. Mariano & James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran, 2015. "The effects of domestic rice market interventions outside business-as-usual conditions for imported rice prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 809-832, February.
    16. Shigeaki F. Hasegawa & Takenori Takada, 2019. "Probability of Deriving a Yearly Transition Probability Matrix for Land-Use Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-11, November.
    17. Nogueira, Luiz Augusto Horta & Antonio de Souza, Luiz Gustavo & Cortez, Luís Augusto Barbosa & Leal, Manoel Regis Lima Verde, 2017. "Sustainable and Integrated Bioenergy Assessment for Latin America, Caribbean and Africa (SIByl-LACAf): The path from feasibility to acceptability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 292-308.
    18. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Ryan Goodrich, 2016. "Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-12, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    19. repec:rza:wpaper:398 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Edson Paulo Domingues, 2016. "Controlling Deforestation In The Brazilian Amazon: Regional Economic Impacts And Land-Use Change," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 192, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    21. Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza, 2012. "Food Security, Labor Market And Poverty Of The Bio-Economy In Brazil," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126158, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2008. "Choosing Sensitive Agricultural Products in Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 2008-18, CEPII research center.
    2. Laborde Debucquet, David & Martin, Will, 2017. "Formulas for failure? Were the Doha tariff formulas too ambitious for success?," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Nordås, Hildegunn Kyvik, 2010. "Business services: a source of comparative advantage," Conference papers 331964, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto & Maria Petrova & Ruben Enikolopov, 2008. "The Dracula effect: voter information and trade policy," Economics Working Papers 1296, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2020.
    5. Giacomo Ponzetto, 2008. "Asymmetric information and trade policy," Economics Working Papers 1253, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
    6. Kym Anderson & Gordon Rausser & Johan Swinnen, 2013. "Political Economy of Public Policies: Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 423-477, June.
    7. Giovanni Maggi & Monika Mrázová & J. Peter Neary, 2022. "Choked By Red Tape? The Political Economy Of Wasteful Trade Barriers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 161-188, February.
    8. Pascalis Raimondos-Møller & Alan Woodland, 2014. "Steepest ascent tariff reform," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 69-99, January.
    9. Johan F. M. Swinnen, 2009. "Political Economy of Agricultural Distortions," World Bank Publications - Reports 28172, The World Bank Group.
    10. Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto, 2011. "Heterogeneous Information and Trade Policy," 2011 Meeting Papers 189, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Suryadipta Roy, 2011. "Political economy determinants of non-agricultural trade policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Mar), pages 89-104.
    12. Christian Bjørnskov, 2012. "Can bribes buy protection against international competition?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(4), pages 751-775, December.
    13. Yasar, Mahmut, 2013. "Political Influence of Exporting and Import-Competing Firms: Evidence from Eastern European and Central Asian Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 154-168.
    14. Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Rent seeking for export licenses: Application to the Vietnam rice market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-13, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    15. Weck-Hannemann, Hannelore, 1989. "Protectionism in direct democracy," Discussion Papers, Series II 79, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    16. Bin, Sheng, 2000. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy in China," Working Papers 10/2000, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Management, Politics & Philosophy.
    17. Francis,David C. & Kubinec ,Robert, 2022. "Beyond Political Connections : A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-levelPolitical Influence in 41 Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10119, The World Bank.
    18. Marcelo Olarreaga, 1999. "Foreign-owned Capital and Endogenous Tariffs," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 606-624.
    19. Potrafke, Niklas, 2013. "Globalization and labor market institutions: International empirical evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 829-842.
    20. Arnaud Costinot & Iván Werning, 2023. "Robots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal Technology Regulation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2261-2291.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.