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Biome composition in deforestation deterrence and GHG emissions in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho
  • Mark Horridge

Abstract

We analyze the Brazilian commitments to COP21 under different scenarios, with a general equilibrium model of Brazil developed for land use change and GHG emissions analysis. The model is dynamic, inter-regional and bottom-up, and here distinguishes 16 regions and 6 biomes. We simulate different scenarios of future deforestation, including the halt of illegal deforestation, the restoration of 12Mha of forests, and replacing deforestation in the Amazon biome by deforestation in the Cerrado biome. Our analysis shows that the restoration of 12 Mha of forests would be enough to meet Brazil's 2025 commitments with no other extra GHG savings efforts, but would not meet 2030 commitments. Exchanging deforestation in the Amazon biome for deforestation in the Cerrado biome would seriously compromise the accomplishment of the targets. We note that emissions in the general economy are increasing in Brazil, suggesting that other efforts must be made to meet the COP21 targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Mark Horridge, 2017. "Biome composition in deforestation deterrence and GHG emissions in Brazil," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-274, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-274
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Mark Horridge, 2011. "Ethanol expansion and indirect land use change in Brazil," Working Papers 0114, Universidade Federal do ParanĂ¡, Department of Economics.
    2. Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho & Luis Ribera & Mark Horridge, 2015. "Deforestation Control and Agricultural Supply in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(2), pages 589-601.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; deforestation; CO2; Cerrado; Amazon;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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