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A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth

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  • Francesco Lancia
  • Giovanni Prarolo

Abstract

Over the past century, all OECD countries have been characterized by a dramatic increase in economic conditions, life expectancy and educational attainment. This paper provides a positive theory that explains how an economy might evolve when the longevity of its citizens both influences and is influenced by the process of economic development. We propose a three periods OLG model where agents, during their lifetime, cover different economic roles characterized by different incentive schemes and time horizon. Agents' decisions embrace two dimensions: the private choice about education and the public one upon innovation policy. The theory focuses on the crucial role played by heterogeneous interests in determining innovation policies, which are one of the keys to the growth process: the economy can be discontinuously innovation-oriented due to the different incentives of individuals and different schemes of political aggregation of preferences. The model produces multiple development regimes associated with different predictions about life expectancy evolution, educational investment dynamics, and technology adoption policies. Transitions between these regimes depend on initial conditions and parameter values.
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  • Francesco Lancia & Giovanni Prarolo, 2012. "A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 989-1018, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:25:y:2012:i:3:p:989-1018
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-011-0364-x
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    2. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2017. "Economic Development and Environmental Change with Endogenous Birth and Mortality Rates," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 77-97, March.
    3. Ma, Yu & Zhang, Tingting & Qian, Wenyu & Wei, Danqi, 2022. "Financial development, demographic changes, and the growth of the non-hydro renewable energy Industry—An empirical test based on R&D and financing costs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 217-229.
    4. Xiaolong Wei & Tao Wang & Yang Chen & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2023. "The Effects of Population Aging on Sports Industry Development: The Mediating Effect of Technological Innovation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-13, January.
    5. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2019. "Endogenous Population In A Neoclassical Growth Model With Wealth And Time Values," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 4(5), pages 47-63, May.
    6. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2021. "A Neoclassical Growth Model With Endogenous Birth And Mortality Rates," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(231), pages 99-126, October –.
    7. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    8. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2014. "Endogenous population with human and physical capital accumulation," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(3), pages 231-252, September.
    9. Zhang W.B., 2015. "Birth And Mortality Rates, Gender Division Of Labor, And Time Distribution In The Solow Growth Model," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 24(1), pages 121-134.
    10. Wei-Bin, ZHANG, 2015. "Economic Oscillations With Endogenous Population, Human Capital And Wealth," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 6(2), pages 9-26.
    11. Wen, Huwei & Chen, Wenjing & Zhou, Fengxiu, 2023. "Does digital service trade boost technological innovation?: International evidence," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2016. "Population Growth And Preference Change In A Generalized Solow Growth Model With Gender Time Distributions," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 7-30, September.
    13. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2014. "Population Change with Endogenous Birth and Mortality Rates, Wealth Accumulation, and Renewable Resource Change," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 103-129.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life expectancy; Majority voting; Systemic innovation; D70; J10; O31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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