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A Politico-Economic Model of Aging, Technology Adoption and Growth

Over the past century, all OECD countries have been characterized by a dramatic increase in economic conditions, life expectancy and educational attainment. This paper provides a positive theory that explains how an economy might evolve when the longevity of its citizens both influences and is influenced by the process of economic development. We propose a three periods OLG model where agents, during their lifetime, cover different economic roles characterized by different incentive schemes and time horizon. Agents’ decisions embrace two dimensions: the private choice about education and the public one upon innovation policy. The theory focuses on the crucial role played by heterogeneous interests in determining innovation policies, which are one of the keys to the growth process: the economy can be discontinuously innovation-oriented due to the different incentives of individuals and different schemes of political aggregation of preferences. The model produces multiple development regimes associated with different predictions about life expectancy evolution, educational investment dynamics, and technology adoption policies. Transitions between these regimes depend on initial conditions and parameter values.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 590.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:590
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  1. Giorgio Bellettini & Carlotta Berti Ceroni, 1995. "Is Social Security Really Bad For Growth?," Working Papers 218, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  2. Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-65, December.
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  7. Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, 2003. "Lessons for an Aging Society: The Political Sustainability of Social Security Systems," Working Papers 244, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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  12. Canton, Erik J. F. & de Groot, Henri L. F. & Nahuis, Richard, 2002. "Vested interests, population ageing and technology adoption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 631-652, November.
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  17. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 13, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
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  19. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
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  23. Nils-Petter Lagerloef, 2000. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: The Three Regimes Revisited," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1248, Econometric Society.
  24. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0217, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  25. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2003. "The impact of new drug launches on longevity: evidence from longitudinal disease-level data from 52 countries, 1982-2001," NBER Working Papers 9754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352.
  27. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2002. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy and the Process of Economic Development," IZA Discussion Papers 585, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  28. Chulhee Lee, 2001. "The expected length of male retirement in the United States, 1850-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 641-650.
  29. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  30. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
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