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The expected length of male retirement in the United States, 1850-1990

Author

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  • Chulhee Lee

    (School of Economics, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-dong, Kwanak-gu, Seoul, KOREA)

Abstract

This paper estimates the expected length of retirement for each labor market cohort between 1850 and 1990. Since 1850, the expected length of retirement has increased by more than six-fold and now represents up to 30% of male length of life after entry into the labor force. The rise of the duration of retirement during the twentieth century is analyzed according to the effects of mortality decline and of decreased age of retirement. Implications of the result for a number of economic issues, including the relative importance of life-cycle savings and the potential saving effect of Social Security, are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Chulhee Lee, 2001. "The expected length of male retirement in the United States, 1850-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 641-650.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:14:y:2001:i:4:p:641-650
    Note: Received: 22 September 1999/Accepted: 11 July 2000
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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Strulik & Volker Grossmann, 2022. "Life Cycle Economics with Infectious and Chronic Diseases," CESifo Working Paper Series 10141, CESifo.
    2. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    3. Rolison, Jonathan J & Hanoch, Yaniv & Wood, Stacey, 2017. "Saving for the future: Dynamic effects of time horizon," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 47-54.
    4. Nicholas Crafts, 2022. "The 15‐Hour Week: Keynes's Prediction Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(356), pages 815-829, October.
    5. Yongseok Shin & Ananth Seshadri & Rody Manuelli, 2012. "Lifetime Labor Supply and Human Capital Investment," 2012 Meeting Papers 946, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Francesco Lancia & Giovanni Prarolo, 2012. "A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 989-1018, July.
    7. Wallenius, Johanna, 2022. "R(a)ising employment of older individuals," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    8. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & d׳Albis, Hippolyte & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2016. "Education, lifetime labor supply, and longevity improvements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 118-141.
    9. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2017. "The Genesis of the Golden Age: Accounting for the Rise in Health and Leisure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 132-151, March.
    10. Moshe Hazan, 2006. "Longevity and Lifetime Labor Input: Data and Implications," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_065, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    11. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2010. "Complements Versus Substitutes And Trends In Fertility Choice In Dynastic Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 671-699, August.
    12. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2021. "The baby boomers and the productivity slowdown," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Ferreira, Matheus L.A., 2018. "The Evolution of the Elderly Labor Force Participation and Retirement in Brazil," OSF Preprints db54h, Center for Open Science.
    14. Karen A. Kopecky, 2011. "The Trend In Retirement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 287-316, May.
    15. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & David Weil, 2010. "Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 65-91, March.
    16. Holger Strulik & Katharina Werner, 2016. "50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 165-187, June.
    17. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2009. "Cohort Working Life Tables for Older Canadians," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 432, McMaster University.
    18. Daishin Yasui, 2012. "Adult Longevity and Growth Takeoff," Discussion Papers 1218, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    19. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Gemma Abio & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2018. "Contribution of demography to economic growth," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-64, March.
    20. Jiaxin Shi & Christian Dudel & Christiaan Monden & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2022. "Inequalities in retirement lifespan in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    21. Dora L. Costa & Heather DeSomer & Eric Hanss & Christopher Roudiez & Sven E. Wilson & Noelle Yetter, 2017. "Union Army veterans, all grown up," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 79-95, April.
    22. Brembilla, Laurent, 2018. "Longevity and welfare in general equilibrium," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 22-36.
    23. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    24. Moshe Hazan, 2006. "Longevity and Hours over the Lifetime: Data and Implications," 2006 Meeting Papers 416, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Social Policy and Population Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP., 2011. "Asia-Pacific Population Journal Volume 26, No. 3," Asia-Pacific Population Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 26(3), pages 1-84, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retirement; savings;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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