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The impact of new drug launches on longevity: evidence from longitudinal disease-level data from 52 countries, 1982-2001

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  • Frank R. Lichtenberg

Abstract

We perform an econometric analysis of the effect of new drug launches on longevity, using data from the IMS Health Drug Launches database and the WHO Mortality Database. Our data cover virtually all of the diseases borne by people in 52 countries during the period 1982-2001, and enable us to control, to an unusually great extent, for the effects of other potential determinants of longevity, e.g. education, income, nutrition, the environment, and lifestyle'. We find that launches of new chemical entities (NCEs) have a strong positive impact on the probability of survival. Launches of (older) drugs that are not NCEs do not increase longevity. NCE launches account for a significant fraction of the long-run increase in longevity in the sample as a whole. Between 1986 and 2000, average life expectancy of the entire population of sample countries increased by almost two years. Our estimates imply that NCE launches accounted for 0.8 years (40%) of the 1986-2000 increase in longevity. The average annual increase in life expectancy of the entire population resulting from NCE launches is .056 years, or 2.93 weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2003. "The impact of new drug launches on longevity: evidence from longitudinal disease-level data from 52 countries, 1982-2001," NBER Working Papers 9754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9754
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lichtenberg, Frank R, 1996. "Do (More and Better) Drugs Keep People Out of Hospitals?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 384-388, May.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Health of Nations: The Contribution of Improved Health to Living Standards," NBER Working Papers 8818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2003. "Scanner Data and Price Indexes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feen03-1.
    4. Liu, Jin-Tan & Hammitt, James K. & Liu, Jin-Long, 1997. "Estimated hedonic wage function and value of life in a developing country," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 353-358, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2007. "On the Determinants of Mortality Reductions in the Developing World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 247-287.
    2. Francesco Lancia & Giovanni Prarolo, 2012. "A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 989-1018, July.
    3. repec:trp:01jefa:jefa0008 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bui, Thi Mai Van & Stolpe, Michael, 2007. "The impact of new drug launches on the loss of labor from disease and injury: evidence from German panel data," Kiel Working Papers 1317, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Margaret Oppenheimer & Helen LaVan & William Martin, 2015. "A Framework for Understanding Ethical and Efficiency Issues in Pharmaceutical Intellectual Property Litigation," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 505-524, December.
    6. Lichtenberg Frank R., 2010. "Pharmaceutical Price Discrimination and Social Welfare," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-32, July.
    7. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    8. Joan Costa-Font & Alistair McGuire & Nebibe Varol, 2015. "Regulation effects on the adoption of new medicines," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1101-1121, November.
    9. Bergh, Andreas & Nilsson, Therese, 2009. "Good for Living? On the Relation between Globalization and Life Expectancy," Ratio Working Papers 136, The Ratio Institute.
    10. Mondal, Shamim S. & Pingali, Viswanath, 2015. "Competition Law and the Pharmaceutical Sector in India," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-11-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    11. Heuer, Alexander & Mejer, Malwina & Neuhaus, Jennifer, 2007. "The national regulation of pharmaceutical markets and the timing of new drug launches in Europe," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 437, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2004. "The Expanding Pharmaceutical Arsenal in the War on Cancer," NBER Working Papers 10328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lee G. Branstetter & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matthew Higgins, 2011. "Regulation and Welfare: Evidence from Paragraph IV Generic Entry in the Pharmaceutical Industry," NBER Working Papers 17188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nebibe Varol & Joan Costa-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2012. "Do International Launch Strategies of Pharmaceutical Corporations Respond to Changes in the Regulatory Environment?," Chapters,in: The LSE Companion to Health Policy, chapter 12 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Nebibe Varol & Joan Costa-i-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2011. "Explaining Early Adoption on New Medicines: Regulation, Innovation and Scale," CESifo Working Paper Series 3459, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Abdulkadir Civan & Michael Maloney, 2015. "Launch Decisions of Pharmaceutical Companies," European Journal of Economic and Political Studies, Fatih University, vol. 8(2), pages 35-58.
    17. Zhou Yang & Donna B. Gilleskie & Edward C. Norton, 2009. "Health Insurance, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).

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    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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