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From Malthus to Modern Growth: The Three Regimes Revisited

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  • Nils-Petter Lagerloef

    (University of Sydney)

Abstract

This paper sets up a model which replicates the stylized facts of the economic and demographic development of western society the last couple of millennia, as described by Galor and Weil (AER, 1999). Under an initial Malthusian Regime the growth rates of population and income are both low, and the relation between income and population growth is positive. Thereafter follows a Post-Malthusian Regime, where the growth rates of income and population are higher, but the relation between income and population growth is still positive. Finally, the economy transits into a Modern Growth Regime, in which the population growth rate is low, but the growth rate of income is higher than in the Post-Malthusian Regime, and the relation between income and population growth is negative. The model's transition from the first regime to the second follows from a population externality: as the earth becomes more populated transmitting skills form one generation to the next becomes more effective. The transition from the second regime to the third occurs when parental human capital reaches a critical level at which altruistic concerns for children's education becomes operative, triggering a substitution from quantity to quality of children.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils-Petter Lagerloef, 2000. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: The Three Regimes Revisited," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1248, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1248
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    Cited by:

    1. Ceyhun Elgin & Semih Tumen, 2010. "Can Sustained Economic Growth and Declining Population Coexist? Barro-Becker Children Meet Lucas," Working Papers 2010/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    2. Frédéric Docquier, 2004. "Income Distribution, Non-convexities and the Fertility-Income Relationship," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 261-273, May.
    3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    4. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    5. Galor, Oded, 2009. "2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture -- Comparative Economic Development: Insights from Unified Growth Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 7519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Francesco Lancia & Giovanni Prarolo, 2012. "A politico-economic model of aging, technology adoption and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 989-1018, July.
    7. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409004, EconWPA.
    8. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2001. "Evolution and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 718-729, May.
    9. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Birth, Death, and Development: A Simple Unified Growth Theory," Discussion Papers 08-32, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Docquier, Frédéric & Faye, Ousmane & Pestieau, Pierre, 2008. "Is migration a good substitute for education subsidies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 263-276, June.
    11. Oded Galor & Stelios Michalopoulos, 2006. "Darwinian Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and the Process of Development," Working Papers 2006-12, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    12. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2014. "Endogenous population with human and physical capital accumulation," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(3), pages 231-252, September.
    13. Galor, Oded & Mountford, Andrew, 2002. "Why are a Third of People Indian and Chinese? Trade, Industrialization and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 3136, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
    15. Galor, Oded & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2006. "The Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and the Process of Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 6022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2004. "Trading Population for Productivity," GE, Growth, Math methods 0410001, EconWPA.
    17. Wei-Bin, ZHANG, 2015. "Economic Oscillations With Endogenous Population, Human Capital And Wealth," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 6(2), pages 9-26.
    18. Oded Galor, 2006. "Economic Growth in the Very Long-Run," Working Papers 2006-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    19. Strulik, Holger & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2010. "How Child Costs and Survival Shaped the Industrial Revolution and the Demographic Transition: A Theoretical Inquiry," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-442, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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