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The determinants of Australian household debt: A macro level study

Author

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  • Meng, Xianming
  • Hoang, Nam T.
  • Siriwardana, Mahinda

Abstract

This paper employs a cointegrated Vector Autoregression (CVAR) model to explore the determinants of Australian household debt. The results show that housing prices, GDP and the population in the economy have a positive effect on household borrowing. Meanwhile, interest rates, the unemployment rate, the number of new dwellings and inflation are found to have a negative effect on Australian household debt. Of these, interest rates are the most significant. Based on these results, it is judicious to rein in household debt during economic booms through monitoring and intervening in the assets market and using monetary policy in a timely, comprehensive, and careful manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, Xianming & Hoang, Nam T. & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2013. "The determinants of Australian household debt: A macro level study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 80-90.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:80-90 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2013.08.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Barnes & Garry Young, 2003. "The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability," Bank of England working papers 206, Bank of England.
    2. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    3. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 266, Bank of England.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Nuno C. Martins & Ernesto Villanueva, 2003. "The Impact of Interest-rate Subsidies on Long-term Household Debt: Evidence from a Large Program," Working Papers w200314, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Nuno C. Martins & Ernesto Villanueva, 2003. "The Impact of Interest-rate Subsidies on Long-term Household Debt: Evidence from a Large Program," Working Papers w200314, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nomatye, Anelisa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Investigating the macroeconomic determinants of household debt in South Africa," MPRA Paper 83303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2017. "Expenditure cascades, low interest rates or property booms? Determinants of household debt in OECD countries," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 18276, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    3. Vince Daly & Farid Ullah & Abdur Rauf & Ghulam Yahya Khan, 2017. "Globalization and Unemployment in Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, pages 634-643.
    4. repec:lpe:efijnl:201607 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Rahman, Sharezan & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Increasing household debts and its relation to GDP, interest rate and house price: Malaysia’s perspective," MPRA Paper 62365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Weiou Wu & Apostolos Fasianos & Stephen Kinsella, 2015. "Differences in Borrowing Behaviour between Core and Peripheral Economies — Economic Environment versus Financial Perceptions," Working Papers 201516, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    7. Mario Fortin, 2015. "Why has the mortgage debt increased by so much in Canada?," Cahiers de recherche 15-03, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    8. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2017. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-3, School of Economics, Kingston University London.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Australian household debt; Cointegrated VAR modelling; Housing market; Housing prices; Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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