IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v72y2010i5p696-715.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Choice of Control Variables in the Crime Equation

Author

Listed:
  • Carlisle E. Moody
  • Thomas B. Marvell

Abstract

Although control variables are the reason for multiple regression, surprising little attention is given to the process of locating and selecting the controls. If important controls are omitted, estimates can be biased and inconsistent whereas using too many controls can reduce efficiency and mask effects. We advocate a much broader search for controls than is customary, at least in the crime literature, and then the use of the general‐to‐specific methodology to select the relevant controls. We illustrate this procedure using a fixed effects panel data design evaluating the effect of legalized abortion on crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlisle E. Moody & Thomas B. Marvell, 2010. "On the Choice of Control Variables in the Crime Equation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(5), pages 696-715, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:72:y:2010:i:5:p:696-715
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00602.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00602.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00602.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    2. Lawrence Katz & Steven D. Levitt & Ellen Shustorovich, 2003. "Prison Conditions, Capital Punishment, and Deterrence," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 318-343, August.
    3. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    4. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote & José A. Scheinkman, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 507-548.
    5. John J. Donohue III & Steven D. Levitt, 2008. "Measurement Error, Legalized Abortion, and the Decline in Crime: A Response to Foote and Goetz," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 425-440.
    6. Marvell, Thomas B & Moody, Carlisle E, 2001. "The Lethal Effects of Three-Strikes Laws," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 89-106, January.
    7. Roland G. Fryer & Paul S. Heaton & Steven D. Levitt & Kevin M. Murphy, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Crack Cocaine," NBER Working Papers 11318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Steven D. Levitt, 2002. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1244-1250, September.
    9. John J. Donohue III & Steven D. Levitt, 2001. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 379-420.
    10. B. Bhaskara Rao & Rup Singh, 2006. "Demand for money for Fiji with PcGets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 987-991.
    11. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1975. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 397-417, June.
    12. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
    13. Granger, Clive W J, 1997. "On Modelling the Long Run in Applied Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 169-177, January.
    14. Cook, Philip J. & Ludwig, Jens, 2006. "The social costs of gun ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 379-391, January.
    15. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    16. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, 2002. "The Effects of Gun Prevalence on Burglary: Deterrence vs Inducement," NBER Working Papers 8926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    18. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-290, June.
    19. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    20. Godfrey, L G, 1976. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 1077-1084, September.
    21. Carlisle E. Moody & Thomas B. Marvell, 2005. "Guns and Crime," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 720-736, April.
    22. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    23. David F. Hendry & Hans‐Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
    24. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "We Ran One Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 799-810, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Jui-Chung Yang, 2016. "Half-panel jackknife fixed effects estimation of panels with weakly exogenous regressor," Globalization Institute Working Papers 281, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Eugene Braslavskiy & Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Virginie Masson, 2019. "The Importance Of Punishment Substitutability In Criminometric Studies," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 491-507, July.
    3. Ligthart, J.E. & Rider, M. & Wang, R., 2013. "Does the Fiscal Decentralization Promote Public Safety? Evidence from United States," Discussion Paper 2013-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Jinghua Lei & Jenny Ligthart & Mark Rider & Ruixin Wang, 2022. "Fiscal fragmentation and crime control: Is there an efficiency-equity tradeoff?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(3), pages 751-787, June.
    5. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Jui‐Chung Yang, 2018. "Half‐panel jackknife fixed‐effects estimation of linear panels with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 816-836, September.
    6. Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra & Ulf Andersson & Mary Yoko Brannen & Bo Bernhard Nielsen & A. Rebecca Reuber, 2016. "From the Editors: Can I trust your findings? Ruling out alternative explanations in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 47(8), pages 881-897, October.
    7. Islam,Asif Mohammed, 2016. "An exploration of the relationship between police presence, crime, and business in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7560, The World Bank.
    8. Michal Brzezinski, 2013. "Top income shares and crime," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 309-315, March.
    9. Michał Brzeziński & Maria Halber, 2012. "Testing the Perturbation Sensitivity of Abortion-Crime Regressions," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(2), June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul R. Zimmerman, 2010. "The Economics of Capital Punishment and Deterrence," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Angela K. Dills & Jeffrey A. Miron & Garrett Summers, 2010. "What Do Economists Know about Crime?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 269-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. O’Flaherty, Brendan & Sethi, Rajiv, 2015. "Urban Crime," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1519-1621, Elsevier.
    4. Philip A. Curry & Anindya Sen & George Orlov, 2016. "Crime, apprehension and clearance rates: Panel data evidence from Canadian provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 481-514, May.
    5. Crinò, Rosario & Immordino, Giovanni & Piccolo, Salvatore, 2019. "Marginal deterrence at work," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 586-612.
    6. Naci Mocan & Kaj Gittings, 2010. "The Impact of Incentives on Human Behavior: Can We Make it Disappear? The Case of the Death Penalty," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 379-418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2011. "Econometric Estimates of Deterrence of the Death Penalty: Facts or Ideology?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 448-478, August.
    8. Matthew J. Baker & Niklas J. Westelius, 2013. "Crime, expectations, and the deterrence hypothesis," Chapters, in: Thomas J. Miceli & Matthew J. Baker (ed.), Research Handbook on Economic Models of Law, chapter 12, pages 235-280, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
    10. Maurice J. G. Bun & Richard Kelaher & Vasilis Sarafidis & Don Weatherburn, 2020. "Crime, deterrence and punishment revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2303-2333, November.
    11. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Anna Bonanno, 2006. "The economic analysis of offender’s choice: Old and new insights," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 53(2), pages 193-224, June.
    13. Maren Duvendack & Richard Palmer-Jones, 2013. "Replication of quantitative work in development studies: Experiences and suggestions," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 13(4), pages 307-322, October.
    14. Durlauf, Steven N. & Navarro, Salvador & Rivers, David A., 2010. "Understanding aggregate crime regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 306-317, October.
    15. Tannenbaum, Daniel I., 2020. "Does the disclosure of gun ownership affect crime? Evidence from New York," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    16. Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Jorge Tamayo, 2010. "Assessing the Link between Adolescent Fertility and Urban Crime," Borradores de Economia 6860, Banco de la Republica.
    17. Paul R. Zimmerman, 2004. "State executions, deterrence, and the incidence of murder," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 163-193, May.
    18. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    19. Cui, Jin & In, Francis & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann, 2016. "What drives the Libor–OIS spread? Evidence from five major currency Libor–OIS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 358-375.
    20. Chao Fu & Nicolás Grau & Jorge Rivera, 2022. "Wandering astray: Teenagers' choices of schooling and crime," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 387-424, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:72:y:2010:i:5:p:696-715. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.