Robust out-of-sample inference

Citations

Cited by:

1. Yin, Anwen, 2015. "Forecasting and model averaging with structural breaks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005727, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
2. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
   • Aaron Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2022. "On the Real-Time Predictive Content of Financial Conditions Indices for Growth," Working Papers 2022-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 03 Jun 2022.
3. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Mood-misattribution effect on energy markets: a biorhythm approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
4. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
   • Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
   • Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
5. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Papers 200923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
   • Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Paper series 42_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
6. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
   • Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
   • Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank.
7. Saša ŽIKOVIÆ & Randall K. FILER, 2013. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(4), pages 327-359, August.
   • Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2012. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3980, CESifo.
8. Arvanitis, Stelios & Post, Thierry & Potì, Valerio & Karabati, Selcuk, 2021. "Nonparametric tests for Optimal Predictive Ability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 881-898.
9. C. Emre Alper & Salih Fendoglu & Burak Saltoglu, 2009. "MIDAS Volatility Forecast Performance Under Market Stress: Evidence from Emerging and Developed Stock Markets," Working Papers 2009/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo.
    • Pesaran, M. Hashem & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2005. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi-Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 5279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," IEPR Working Papers 04.3, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
    • Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni & Banca d'Italia), 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
11. Cristina Danciulescu, 2010. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk Models: A Multivariate Approach," Caepr Working Papers 2010-004, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
12. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2018. "Mining big data using parsimonious factor, machine learning, variable selection and shrinkage methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 339-354.
13. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
14. Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers 201229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
15. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
    • Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
16. Joëts, Marc, 2015. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 204-215.
    • Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," Working Papers 2013-31, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    • Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2013.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Marc Joëts, 2015. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," Post-Print hal-01609889, HAL.
    • Joëts, Marc, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics," Energy: Resources and Markets 148918, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
17. Ashley, Richard, 2003. "Statistically significant forecasting improvements: how much out-of-sample data is likely necessary?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-239.
18. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
19. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Mishra, Santosh, 2004. "Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 629-645.
20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil‐Alana, 2014. "Long‐Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 147-161, March.
    • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Economics Series 155, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • L.A. Gil-Alana & G.M. caporale, 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 344, Econometric Society.
    • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Long Run And Cyclical Dynamics In The Us Stock Market," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Long Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 2046, CESifo.
21. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
    • Corradi, V. & Swanson, N.R., 2000. "A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out of Sample Predictive Accuracy," Discussion Papers 0012, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
22. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
    • Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Working Papers 11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
23. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    • Taylor, Mark & Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
24. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Some recent developments in predictive accuracy testing with nested models and (generic) nonlinear alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 185-199.
    • Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
25. Şener, Emrah & Baronyan, Sayad & Ali Mengütürk, Levent, 2012. "Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 849-873.
26. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schleicher, Christoph & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 280-305, March.
    • Pesaran, M.H. & Schleicher, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2008. "Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0808, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • M. Hashem Pesaran & Christoph Schleicher & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2008. "Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 2231, CESifo.
27. Sander Barendse & Erik Kole & Dick van Dijk, 2023. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in the Presence of Estimation Error," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 528-568.
    • Sander Barendse & Erik Kole & Dick van Dijk, 2019. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in the Presence of Estimation Error," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-058/III, Tinbergen Institute.
28. Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008. "Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
    • Costas Milas & Philip Rothman, 2007. "Out-of-Sample Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," Working Paper series 49_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
29. Yi-Ting Chen, 2016. "Testing for Granger Causality in Moments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(2), pages 265-288, April.
30. Kihwan Kim & Hyun Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2023. "Mixing mixed frequency and diffusion indices in good times and in bad: an assessment based on historical data around the great recession of 2008," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1421-1469, March.
31. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    • Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
    • Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
32. Weijia Peng & Chun Yao, 2023. "Sector-level equity returns predictability with machine learning and market contagion measure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1761-1798, October.
33. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
    • Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Taylor, Mark & Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
34. Zhu, Yinchu & Timmermann, Allan, 2022. "Conditional rotation between forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 329-347.
35. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
    • Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 08-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
36. Grané, Aurea & Veiga, Helena, 2010. "Outliers in Garch models and the estimation of risk measures," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws100502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
37. Hirukawa, Masayuki, 2023. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation in Time Series: A Review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 36-61.
38. Francisco Javier Eransus & Alfonso Novales Cinca, 2014. "Parameter Estimation Error in Tests of Predictive Performance under Discrete Loss Functions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-22, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
39. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
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40. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
41. Boucher, Christophe M. & Daníelsson, Jón & Kouontchou, Patrick S. & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-92.
    • Christophe Boucher & Jon Danielsson & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2014. "Risk Model-at-Risk," Post-Print hal-01386003, HAL.
    • Christophe Boucher & Jon Danielsson & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Post-Print hal-02312332, HAL.
    • Boucher, Christophe M. & Danielsson, Jon & Kouontchou, Patrick S. & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2014. "Risk models–at–risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59299, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Christophe Boucher & Jón Daníelsson & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Post-Print hal-01243413, HAL.
42. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
43. Mawuli Segnon & Thomas Lux & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Modeling and Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowance Spot Price Volatility: Multifractal vs. GARCH-Type Volatility Models," Working Papers 201550, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Modeling and Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowance Spot Price Volatility: Multifractal vs. GARCH-type Volatility Models," FinMaP-Working Papers 46, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
44. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    • Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank.
    • Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
45. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Olmo, Jose, 2010. "Backtesting Parametric Value-at-Risk With Estimation Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 36-51.
    • Juan Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2007. "Backtesting Parametric Value-at-Risk with Estimation Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2007-005_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
46. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
47. Pei Pei, 2010. "Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights," Caepr Working Papers 2010-010, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
48. Hyun Hak Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Mining Big Data Using Parsimonious Factor and Shrinkage Methods," Departmental Working Papers 201316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
49. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011. "Understanding models' forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
    • Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
50. Jin, Sainan & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2017. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(6), pages 1306-1351, December.
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51. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Bootstrap conditional distribution tests in the presence of dynamic misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 779-806, August.
    • Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification," Departmental Working Papers 200311, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
52. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 570-585, July.
    • Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
53. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2015. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters Have Predictive Value?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 290-302, July.
    • Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-53, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2010. "Does Disagreement amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-088/4, Tinbergen Institute.
54. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
55. Pei Pei, 2010. "Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights," CAEPR Working Papers 2010-010, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
56. Ryan Ratcliff, 2010. "Predicting nominal exchange rate movements using skewness information from options prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 75-92.
57. Kurennoy, Alexey (Куренной, Алексей), 2015. "Evaluation of the Forecasting Quality [Оценка Качества Прогнозирования]," Published Papers mak7, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
58. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
    • Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
59. Jeffrey S. Racine & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2012. "Data-Driven Model Evaluation: A Test for Revealed Performance," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-13, McMaster University.
60. Santosh Mishra & Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Jumps in Rank and Expected Returns. Introducing Varying Cross-sectional Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 356, Econometric Society.
61. Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1066-1080, November.
    • Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Multivariate forecast evaluation and rationality testing," Working Papers 2007-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Komunjer, Ivana & OWYANG, MICHAEL, 2007. "Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt81w8m5sf, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
62. Capistrán Carlos, 2007. "Optimality Tests for Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers 2007-14, Banco de México.
63. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
64. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    • Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2021. "How Local is the Local Inflation Factor? Evidence from Emerging European Countries," Working Papers 8-2021, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
65. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(2), pages 669-705.
    • Raffella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 845, UCLA Department of Economics.
    • Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 638, European Central Bank.
    • Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2006. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," Working Papers 06-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
66. Olmo Jose & Pouliot William, 2011. "Early Detection Techniques for Market Risk Failure," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-55, September.
    • Olmo, J. & Pouliot, W., 2008. "Early Detection Techniques for Market Risk Failure," Working Papers 08/09, Department of Economics, City University London.
67. Sang-Kuck Chung, 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasts of nonlinear long-memory models of the real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 355-370.
68. West, Kenneth D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 495-497, December.
69. Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Forecasting growth of U.S. aggregate and household-sector M2 after 2000 using economic uncertainty measures," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201702, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
70. Post, Thierry & Karabatı, Selçuk & Arvanitis, Stelios, 2019. "Robust optimization of forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 910-926.
71. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 727-744, December.
    • van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
72. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    • Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
73. Brooks, Chris & Burke, Simon P. & Stanescu, Silvia, 2016. "Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 458-474.
74. Cristina Danciulescu, 2010. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk Models: A Multivariate Approach," CAEPR Working Papers 2010-004, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
75. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
76. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
77. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
78. Alper, C. Emre & Fendoglu, Salih & Saltoglu, Burak, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatilities Using MIDAS Regressions: An Application to the Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 7460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
79. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Mood-misattribution effect on energy markets: a biorhythm approach," Working Papers hal-04141071, HAL.
80. Li, Jia & Patton, Andrew J., 2018. "Asymptotic inference about predictive accuracy using high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 223-240.
    • Jia Li & Andrew J. Patton, 2013. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data," Working Papers 13-27, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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