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Backtesting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Estimated Portfolio Weights

  • Pei Pei

    ()

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

Registered author(s):

This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio VaR with estimation risk in an intrinsically multivariate framework. For the first time in the literature, it takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating the portfolio weights as well as that from estimating the multivariate dynamic model of asset returns make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. And it proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to carry out valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. A simulation exercise illustrates our theoretical findings. In application, a portfolio of three stocks is considered.

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File URL: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr/RePEc/PDF/2010/CAEPR2010-010.pdf
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Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2010-010.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2010-010
Contact details of provider: Postal: 812-855-1021
Phone: 812-855-1021
Fax: 812-855-3736
Web page: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr
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  1. Marno Verbeek & Jeroen VK Rombouts, 2005. "Evaluating Portfolio Value-at-Risk using Semi-Parametric GARCH Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 40, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Sentana,E., 1995. "Quadratic Arch Models," Papers 9517, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  3. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Multivariate GARCH models," CREATES Research Papers 2008-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1986. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model," Special Studies Papers 205, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Pierre Giot and S»bastien Laurent, 2001. "Value-At-Risk For Long And Short Trading Positions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 94, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2002. "A new class of multivariate skew densities, with application to GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 2002020, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
  9. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
  10. GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "Value-at-Risk for long and short trading positions," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1707, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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