Nonparametric lag selection for time series
A nonparametric version of the Final Prediction Error (FPE) is proposed for lag selection in nonlinear autoregressive time series. We derive its consistency for both local constant and local linear estimators using a derived optimal bandwidth. Further asymptotic analysis suggests a greater probability of overfitting (too many lags) than underfitting (missing important lags). Thus a correction factor is proposed to increase correct fitting by reducing overfitting. Our Monte-Carlo study also corroborates that the correction factor generally improves the probability of correct lag selection for both linear and nonlinear processes. The proposed methods are successfully applied to the Canadian lynx data and daily returns of DM/US-Dollar exchange rates.
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- L. YANG & Wolfgang HÄRDLE, 1996.
"Nonparametric Autoregression with Multiplicative Volatility and Additive Mean,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1996,62, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Yang, Lijian & Härdle, Wolfgang & Nielsen, Jens P., 1998. "Nonparametric autoregression with multiplicative volatility and additive mean," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,107, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
- Wolfgang HÄRDLE & A. TSYBAKOV & L. YANG, 1996. "Nonparametric Vector Autoregression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,61, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)