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Nonparametric Autoregression with Multiplicative Volatility and Additive Mean

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  • L. YANG
  • Wolfgang HÄRDLE

Abstract

For over a decade, nonparametric modelling has been successfully applied to study nonlinear structures in financial time series. It is well known that the usual nonparametric models often have less than satisfactory performance when dealing with more than one lag. When the mean has an additive structure, however, better estimation methods are available which fully exploit such a structure. Although in the past such nonparametric applications had been focused more on the estimation of the conditional mean, it is equally if not more important to measure the future risk of the series along with the mean. For the volatility function, i.e., the conditional variance given the past, a multiplicative structure is more appropriate than an additive one, as the volatility is a positive scale function and a multiplicative model provides a better interpretation of each lagged value's influence on such a function. In this paper we consider the joint estimation of both the additive mean and the multiplicative volatility. The technique used is marginally integrated local polynomial estimation. The procedure is applied to the DEM/USD (Deutsche Mark/US Dollar) daily exchange returns.
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Suggested Citation

  • L. YANG & Wolfgang HÄRDLE, 1996. "Nonparametric Autoregression with Multiplicative Volatility and Additive Mean," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,62, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199662
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Audrino & Peter Bühlmann, 2009. "Splines for financial volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(3), pages 655-670.
    2. Yang, Lijian, 2006. "A semiparametric GARCH model for foreign exchange volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 365-384, February.
    3. Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1997. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1160, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Kim, Woocheol & Linton, Oliver, 2003. "A local instrumental variable estimation method for generalized additive volatility models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2028, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Kreiss, Jens-Peter & Neumann, Michael H. & Yao, Qiwei, 2008. "Bootstrap tests for simple structures in nonparametric time series regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24135, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Luca Bagnato & Lucio De Capitani & Antonio Punzo, 2014. "Detecting serial dependencies with the reproducibility probability autodependogram," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 98(1), pages 35-61, January.
    7. Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen, 2003. "Estimating Semiparametric ARCH (8) Models by Kernel Smoothing Methods," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 453, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    8. Mohamed Chikhi & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Nonparametric analysis of financial time series by the Kernel methodology," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 865-880, August.
    9. Neumann, Michael H., 1997. "On robustness of model-based bootstrap schemes in nonparametric time series analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,88, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    10. Jing Wang & Lijian Yang, 2009. "Efficient and fast spline-backfitted kernel smoothing of additive models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 61(3), pages 663-690, September.
    11. Siegfried Heiler, 1999. "A Survey on Nonparametric Time Series Analysis," Finance 9904005, EconWPA.
    12. Christian M. Hafner & Wolfgang HÄrdle, 2000. "Discrete time option pricing with flexible volatility estimation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 189-207.
    13. Tschernig, Rolf & Yang, Lijian, 1997. "Nonparametric lag selection for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,59, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    14. Oliver Linton & Pedro Gozalo, 1995. "Testing Additivity in Generalized Nonparametric Regression Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1106, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Buhlmann, Peter & McNeil, Alexander J., 2002. "An algorithm for nonparametric GARCH modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 665-683, October.
    16. Lu, Zudi & Jiang, Zhenyu, 2001. "L1 geometric ergodicity of a multivariate nonlinear AR model with an ARCH term," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 121-130, January.
    17. Gozalo, Pedro L. & Linton, Oliver B., 2001. "Testing additivity in generalized nonparametric regression models with estimated parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 1-48, August.

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