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Essay on Four Issues in Public Policy Evaluation

  • Pauline Givord

Cette thèse présente quatre tentatives indépendantes d'évaluations de politiques publiques, mettant en application les méthodes microéconométriques récentes. Précédé d'un premier chapitre présentant un grand résumé en français, le deuxième chapitre s'intéresse à l'impact de la réforme dite du bonus/malus écologique sur les émissions de CO2. Évaluer l'impact de cette mesure sur les émissions finales de CO2 demande de modéliser non seulement les choix d'achat de véhicule, mais également l'usage de ces véhicules. La rapidité de mise en oeuvre de la mesure offre une source d'identification crédible de la sensibilité des choix des consommateurs aux incitations financières. Les estimations suggèrent cependant un bilan très décevant de la mesure : du fait de forts effets volumes, le bonus/malus s'est traduit par une augmentation substancielle des émissions de CO2. Le troisième chapitre évalue la capacité de dispositifs fiscaux à redynamiser l'emploi et l'activité économique locale des zones ciblées, à travers le dispositif des Zones Franches Urbaines. L'accès à des données locales précises permet d'évaluer l'impact des exonérations fiscales accordées aux entreprises s'installant dans les ZFU de deuxième génération. Celles-ci auraient un impact positif mais faible sur la création d'entreprise et l'emploi en comparaison avec les autres zones défavorisées similaires. Le quatrième chapitre s'intéresse aux conséquences des contrats temporaires sur les trajectoires professionnelles. En contrôlant des biais d'hétérogénéité individuelle par un modèle à effets fixes, on montre que les CDD augmentent significativement les transitions vers l'emploi stable par rapport au chômage. En revanche, le travail intérimaire n'améliore que marginalement ces transitions. Le cinquième chapitre traite des effets des augmentations du salaire minimum créées par loi Fillon sur les inégalités salariales. Alors que la mise en place progressive des accords de réduction de temps de travail avaient créés plusieurs niveaux de rémunération minimale, leur convergence sur trois ans fournit une source d'identification. Les estimations utilisent une méthode de régression de quantiles inconditionnelles. Les augmentations de salaire minimum auraient un effet (faible) jusqu'au septième décile des distributions de salaire des hommes, mais négligeable pour ceux des femmes.

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Length: 172 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9je5h30d2n
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