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Going Dutch? The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jared C. Carbone

    () (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines)

  • Kenneth J. McKenzie

    () (Department of Economics, University of Calgary)

Abstract

We examine the steady-state impact of a 10 percent reduction in the price of oil using a CGE model of the Canadian economy. The model includes a high degree of disaggregation at both the sectoral and provincial level, international and interprovincial flows of goods and services, labour which is mobile between sectors, capital which is partly mobile both inter-provincially and inter-sectorally, and equilibrium exchange rate adjustments arising from the oil price shock. The key result of our simulations is that--on balance--a negative oil price shock leaves Canadians worse off. We also find that the welfare losses associated with a negative oil price shock are shared broadly across the provinces. The corollary, of course, is that a positive price shock leaves Canadians better off. Our results have implications for the presence (or significance) of Dutch Disease in Canada; we argue that the "disease" is just one of a number of effects generated by oil-price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jared C. Carbone & Kenneth J. McKenzie, 2015. "Going Dutch? The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy," Working Papers 2015-07, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201507
    as

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    File URL: http://econbus-papers.mines.edu/working-papers/wp201507.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoph Böhringer & Nicholas Rivers & Thomas Rutherford & Randall Wigle, 2015. "Sharing the burden for climate change mitigation in the Canadian federation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1350-1380, November.
    2. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    3. Beine, Michel & Bos, Charles S. & Coulombe, Serge, 2012. "Does the Canadian economy suffer from Dutch disease?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 468-492.
    4. Beck, Marisa & Rivers, Nicholas & Wigle, Randall & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2015. "Carbon tax and revenue recycling: Impacts on households in British Columbia," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-69.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    6. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
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    Keywords

    resource curse; dutch disease; petroleum markets; Canada; computable general equilibrium;

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