Liberalização Financeira, Performance e Econômica e Estabilidade Macroeconômica no Brasil: Uma Avaliação do Período Recente
Este artigo objetiva avaliar a relação entre liberalização da conta capital, performance econômica e estabilidade macroeconômica no Brasil. Para tanto, além de uma revisão da literatura, o artigo realiza uma avaliação empírica dos efeitos da liberalização financeira no Brasil sobre um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas com o uso da metodologia VAR, utilizando, para tanto, dois modelos: um com um índice de jure de liberalização financeira (ILF), e outro com um índice de facto de integração financeira (IIF). Procura-se no primeiro caso avaliar a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira resulta em redução no risco país e, consequentemente, na taxa de juros doméstica; no segundo caso, avalia-se a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira tem impacto positivo sobre o crescimento econômico e a estabilidade macroeconômica,vis-à-vis a hipótese dos críticos da liberalização financeira de que esta gera efeitosinstabilizadores em países em desenvolvimento. This paper aims at analyzing the relationship between capital account liberalization,economic performance and macroeconomic stability in Brazil. For this purpose,besides a revision in the literature, the paper develops an empirical study on the effects of financial liberalization in Brazil on a set of macroeconomic variables usingtwo models: one with a de jure index of financial liberalization, and another with a defacto index of financial integration. In the first model, the study intends to evaluatethe proposal that the full convertibility of capital account in Brazil would result in the reduction of country-risk and, consequently, of the domestic interest rate. In the second one, it aims at assessing the hypothesis that financial liberalization has positive effect on economic growth and macroeconomic stability vis-à-vis the hypothesis of the critics of financial liberalization that support that it generates unstable effects on developing economies.
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