IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/cemmap/57-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Program evaluation with high-dimensional data

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Chernozhukov

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and MIT)

  • Ivan Fernandez-Val

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Boston University)

  • Christian Hansen

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Chicago GSB)

Abstract

We consider estimation of policy relevant treatment effects in a data-rich environment where there may be many more control variables available than there are observations. In addition to allowing many control variables, the setting we consider allows heterogeneous treatment effects, endogenous receipt of treatment, and function-valued outcomes. To make information inference possible, we assume that reduced form predictive relationships are approximately sparse. That is, we require that the relationship between the covariates and the outcome, treatment status, and instrument status can be captured up to a small approximation error using a small number of controls whose identities are unknown to the researcher. This condition allows estimation and inference for a wide variety of treatment parameters to process after selection of an appropriate set of control variables formed by selecting controls separately for each reduced form relationship and then appropriately combining this set of reduced form predictive models and associated selected controls. We provide conditions under which post-selection inferences is uniformly valid across a wide-range of models and show that a key condition underlying uniform validity of post-selection inference allowing for imperfect model selection is the use of approximately unbiased estimating equations. We illustrate the use of the proposed treatment effect estimation methods with an application to estimating the effect of 401(k) participation on accumulated assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Christian Hansen, 2013. "Program evaluation with high-dimensional data," CeMMAP working papers CWP57/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:57/13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wps/cwp571313.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1994. "Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models via Stochastic Equicontinuity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 43-72, January.
    3. Cattaneo, Matias D., 2010. "Efficient semiparametric estimation of multi-valued treatment effects under ignorability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 138-154, April.
    4. Hahn, Jinyong, 1997. "Bayesian Bootstrap of the Quantile Regression Estimator: A Large Sample Study," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(4), pages 795-808, November.
    5. Kline Patrick & Santos Andres, 2012. "A Score Based Approach to Wild Bootstrap Inference," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 23-41, August.
    6. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, July.
    7. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
    8. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Martin Spindler, 2015. "Post-Selection and Post-Regularization Inference in Linear Models with Many Controls and Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 486-490, May.
    9. Koenker, Roger, 1988. "Asymptotic Theory and Econometric Practice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 139-147, April.
    10. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    11. Abadie, Alberto, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 231-263, April.
    12. Rothe, Christoph & Firpo, Sergio Pinheiro, 2013. "Semiparametric estimation and inference using doubly robust moment conditions," Textos para discussão 330, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    13. Han Hong & Denis Nekipelov, 2010. "Semiparametric efficiency in nonlinear LATE models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(2), pages 279-304, November.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    15. Newey, Whitney K., 1997. "Convergence rates and asymptotic normality for series estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 147-168, July.
    16. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    17. A. Belloni & V. Chernozhukov & L. Wang, 2011. "Square-root lasso: pivotal recovery of sparse signals via conic programming," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(4), pages 791-806.
    18. Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2008. "Can One Estimate The Unconditional Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 338-376, April.
    19. Eric M. Engen & William G. Gale & John Karl Scholz, 1996. "The Illusory Effects of Saving Incentives on Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 113-138, Fall.
    20. Hong, H. & Scaillet, O., 2006. "A fast subsampling method for nonlinear dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 557-578, August.
    21. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2004. "The Effects of 401(K) Participation on the Wealth Distribution: An Instrumental Quantile Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 735-751, August.
    22. Edward Vytlacil, 2002. "Independence, Monotonicity, and Latent Index Models: An Equivalence Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 331-341, January.
    23. Benjamin, Daniel J., 2003. "Does 401(k) eligibility increase saving?: Evidence from propensity score subclassification," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1259-1290, May.
    24. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Christian & Liao, Yuan, 2016. "The Factor-Lasso and K-Step Bootstrap Approach for Inference in High-Dimensional Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 75313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xu, Ning & Hong, Jian & Fisher, Timothy, 2016. "Finite-sample and asymptotic analysis of generalization ability with an application to penalized regression," MPRA Paper 73622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Denis Chetverikov & . ., 2016. "On cross-validated Lasso," CeMMAP working papers CWP47/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Christian Hansen & Yuan Liao, 2016. "The Factor-Lasso and K-Step Bootstrap Approach for Inference in High-Dimensional Economic Applications," Papers 1611.09420, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2016.
    5. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Valid Post-Selection Inference in High-Dimensional Approximately Sparse Quantile Regression Models," Papers 1312.7186, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    6. Farrell, Max H., 2015. "Robust inference on average treatment effects with possibly more covariates than observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 1-23.
    7. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson, 2014. "Bootstrapping Kernel-Based Semiparametric Estimators," CREATES Research Papers 2014-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Susan Athey & Julie Tibshirani & Stefan Wager, 2016. "Generalized Random Forests," Papers 1610.01271, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    9. Huber, Martin & Wüthrich, Kaspar, 2017. "Evaluating local average and quantile treatment effects under endogeneity based on instruments: a review," FSES Working Papers 479, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    10. Kaspar Wüthrich, 2015. "Semiparametric estimation of quantile treatment effects with endogeneity," Diskussionsschriften dp1509, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    11. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The State of Applied Econometrics - Causality and Policy Evaluation," Papers 1607.00699, arXiv.org.
    12. Christian Hansen & Yuan Liao, 2016. "The Factor-Lasso and K-Step Bootstrap Approach for Inference in High-Dimensional Economic Applications," Departmental Working Papers 201610, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:57/13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emma Hyman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cmifsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.