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Industrialisation et transformation structurelle : l'Afrique sub-saharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Cadot

    (HEC Lausanne - Faculté des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC Lausanne))

  • Jaime de Melo

    (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)

  • Patrick Plane

    () (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laurent Wagner

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

Abstract

Avec une croissance soutenue, une vague d'investissements directs étrangers sans précédent, et un net recul de la pauvreté, le bilan des quinze dernières années est largement positif pour l'Afrique sub-saharienne. Ce regain de croissance, qui s'est accompagné de réformes économiques importantes, de progrès démocratiques et d'une moindre incidence des conflits, demeure cependant fragile. La transformation structurelle, qui historiquement a pris la forme, dans la plupart des pays aujourd'hui développés, d'un transfert de ressources du secteur primaire au secteur secondaire, puis tertiaire, semble, en Afrique, avoir « contourné » le secteur secondaire. En effet, qu'il s'agisse d'emplois ou de valeur ajoutée, le secteur manufacturier ne s'est jamais réellement développé en Afrique sub-saharienne. Dans la plupart des pays, la tendance, que la croissance récente ne semble pas avoir inversée, est plutôt à la désindustrialisation. Parmi les facteurs contributifs largement documentés dans la littérature et dans les données, on compte au premier chef les incertitudes de l'environnement des affaires en présence de gouvernance publique défaillante, une relative cherté de la main d'oeuvre par rapport à ses qualifications, le manque d'infrastructures énergétiques et de transport (lié souvent à des problèmes de gouvernance), et le dysfonctionnement des marchés du crédit. Malgré l'amélioration récente du climat des affaires, peu de pays d'Afrique sub-saharienne offrent des conditions attractives aux investisseurs du secteur manufacturier par rapport aux localisations alternatives, en particulier en Asie du Sud-Est. L'Afrique sub-saharienne peut-elle alors se développer par les services ? Jusqu'à présent, les expériences nationales de développement « sans usines » sont trop rares et idiosyncrasiques pour servir de modèle ; cependant, en présence de progrès technique dans les services et en l'absence d'alternatives manufacturières crédibles, la question reste ouverte.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Cadot & Jaime de Melo & Patrick Plane & Laurent Wagner & Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, 2015. "Industrialisation et transformation structurelle : l'Afrique sub-saharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?," Working Papers halshs-02136699, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02136699
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    Keywords

    Afrique sub-saharienne; (dés-)industrialisation; transformation structurelle; secteur manufacturier; services; exportations; pauvreté; emplois; productivité; croissance.;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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