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Has Structural Economic Vulnerability Decreased in Least Developed Countries? Lessons Drawn from Retrospective Indices

Author

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  • Joel Cariolle

    (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)

  • Michaël Goujon

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Guillaumont

    (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

Monitoring of structural change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) requires examination of the changes in their structural economic vulnerability. This cannot be done by comparing the level of the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) that is calculated for each triennial review of the list of LDCs, because of the change in the design of the index. In this paper, the change in the structural vulnerability of LDCs is assessed according to two retrospective series of EVI, based on constant definitions, those respectively used at the 2006 and 2012 reviews. The real change in structural economic vulnerability is thus isolated from the impact of the changes in the design of the index (components, weighting, methods of calculation, and data updating).According to both retrospective series, structural vulnerability is not only markedly higher in LDCs than in other developing countries, but it shows a later and smaller decline over the period 1990-2011. The declining trend of EVI is due mainly to the trend of the shock sub-index which is more marked in non-LDCs than in LDCs according to both designs. On the other hand, the exposure trend, which declines at a similar rate in LDCs and non LDCs, seems to result from two factors which do not reflect a real structural change in LDCs: a higher population growth and a less rapid increase of the share of population located in low elevation areas.Moreover the change in 2012 of the weighting of the exposure index, together with the addition of the low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) component (at the expense of population size), introduced a bias into the distribution of vulnerability values within the LDC group. It works against dry land countries, which are often threatened by climate change. It also leads to underestimate the increase in the gap between the structural vulnerability of LDCs and non-LDCs.
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Suggested Citation

  • Joel Cariolle & Michaël Goujon & Patrick Guillaumont, 2016. "Has Structural Economic Vulnerability Decreased in Least Developed Countries? Lessons Drawn from Retrospective Indices," Post-Print hal-02044948, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02044948
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    1. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Joël CARIOLLE, 2011. "The Economic Vulnerability Index - 2010 Update," Working Papers I09, FERDI.
    3. Joël CARIOLLE & Michaël GOUJON, 2013. "A retrospective economic vulnerability index, 1990-2011 - Using the 2012 UN-CDP definitions," Working Papers I17, FERDI.
    4. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Caught in a trap. Identifying the least developed countries," Post-Print hal-00436331, HAL.
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    2. Olivier Cadot & Jaime de Melo & Patrick Plane & Laurent Wagner & Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, 2016. "Industrialisation et transformation structurelle : l’Afrique subsaharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 24(2), pages 19-49.
    3. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on human development in developed and developing countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 943-983, November.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    5. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    6. Sosso Feindouno & Michael Goujon, 2019. "Human Assets Index: Insights from a Retrospective Series Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 959-984, February.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Exchange rate pressure, fiscal redistribution and poverty in developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1173-1203, November.
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    9. Montfort Mlachila & René Tapsoba & Sampawende J. A. Tapsoba, 2017. "A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(2), pages 675-710, November.
    10. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Export product diversification and tax performance quality in developing countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 849-876, October.
    11. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Poverty volatility and poverty in developing countries," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 84-95, February.
    12. Sosso Feindouno, 2019. "Improving the measurement of export instability in the Economic Vulnerability Index: A simple proposal," Post-Print hal-02167897, HAL.
    13. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Do Aid for Trade flows affect Technology Licensing in Recipient Countries?," EconStor Preprints 273419, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Sosso Feindouno, 2019. "Improving the measurement of export instability in the Economic Vulnerability Index: A simple proposal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1629-1638.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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