Industrialisation et transformation structurelle : l’Afrique subsaharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?

With its sustained growth, the unprecedented wave of foreign direct investment, and the sharp decline in poverty, Sub-Saharan Africa?s track record over the past fifteen years has been largely positive. Yet, this rebound in growth, accompanied by democratic progress and a lower incidence of conflicts, remains fragile. Structural change?which in most of today?s developed countries has come about through a transfer of resources from the primary to the secondary sector, then to the tertiary sector?appears to have bypassed the secondary sector. In fact, be it in terms of jobs or value added, manufacturing has never really flourished in Sub-Saharan Africa. Rather, the trend in most countries is towards de-industrialization and this does not seem to have been reversed by recent growth. The main contributing factors include business environment uncertainties associated with public governance failures, high labor costs relative to worker qualifications, inadequate energy and transport infrastructure and dysfunctional credit markets. Despite recent improvements in the business climate, few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa offer attractive conditions for manufacturing investment compared to alternative locations, especially those in South East Asia. Can Sub-Saharan Africa pursue its development through its services sector ? To date, cases of countries that have achieved development ?without factories? are too scarce and idiosyncratic to serve as a model. However, given the technical progress in services and the lack of plausible alternatives in manufacturing, the question remains open. Codes JEL : F1, J2, L6, O11, O14, O47, O55.