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Aid and Growth Accelerations: Vulnerability Matters

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  • Guillaumont, Patrick
  • Wagner, Laurent

Abstract

This paper confronts three conundrums. First, does the relationship between aid and growth fade over time when aid is successful? Second, why are aid inflows neglected in the literature on growth acceleration (or episodes). Third, why is country vulnerability overlooked in the same literature? Our purpose is to address these puzzles, and in doing so two hypotheses are formulated and tested. First, we assume that aid can have a positive (catalytic) effect on the launching of growth episodes, as well as on their duration. Second, we assume that this effect is all the more significant with the intensity of the exogeneous shocks the country faces. Econometric tests do not reject these hypotheses. The paper first considers the origin of the puzzles and explains the hypotheses presented as the answer, and then introduces the models used to test these. Finally, it assesses the results and their implications. Once again, it appears that vulnerability does matter with regard to the impact of aid on both the probability of an occurrence of growth spells and on their duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaumont, Patrick & Wagner, Laurent, 2012. "Aid and Growth Accelerations: Vulnerability Matters," WIDER Working Paper Series 031, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2012-031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
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    5. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 429-451, August.
    6. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    7. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588.
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    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    10. Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 452-463, August.
    11. Laurent Wagner, 2007. "Thresholds in Aid Effectiveness," Post-Print hal-00177460, HAL.
    12. Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Thiele, 2006. "Targeting Aid to the Needy and Deserving: Nothing But Promises?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9), pages 1177-1201, September.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5400 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    15. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    16. Sanjeev Gupta & Catherine A Pattillo & Kevin J Carey, 2005. "Sustaining Growth Accelerations and Pro-Poor Growth in Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/195, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    18. Jonas Dovern & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2007. "Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 359-383, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:cai:edddbu:edd_302_0019 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Aid Effectiveness for Poverty Reduction: Lessons from Cross‑country Analyses, with a Special Focus on Vulnerable Countries," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(HS01), pages 217-261.
    3. Michaël GOUJON & Sosso FEINDOUNO, 2016. "Human Assets Index retrospective series: 2016 update," Working Papers P179, FERDI.
    4. Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Identifying thresholds in aid effectiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 619-638, August.
    5. Michaël GOUJON & Mathilde CLOSSET & Sosso FEINDOUNO, 2014. "Human Assets Index Retrospective series: 2013 update," Working Papers P110, FERDI.
    6. repec:eee:riibaf:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:15-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Olivier Cadot & Jaime de Melo & Patrick Plane & Laurent Wagner & Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, 2016. "Industrialisation et transformation structurelle : l’Afrique subsaharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 24(2), pages 19-49.
    8. Lisa CHAUVET & Marin FERRY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Sampawende J.-A. TAPSOBA & Laurent WAGNER, 2017. "Volatility Widens Inequality. Could Aid and Remittances Help?," Working Papers P158, FERDI.
    9. Jean-Claude BERTHELEMY, 2017. "Dualism, Poverty Exits and Growth Accelerations," Working Papers 4301, FERDI.
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.
    11. Olivier CADOT & Jaime DE MELO & Patrick PLANE & Laurent WAGNER & Martha Tesfaye WOLDEMICHAEL, 2016. "Industrialization and Structural Change: Can Sub-Saharan Africa Develop without Factories?," Working Papers P143, FERDI.

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