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Aid and Growth Accelerations: Vulnerability Matters

Author

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  • Patrick Guillaumont

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laurent Wagner

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper confronts three conundrums. First, does the relationship between aid and growth fade over time when aid is successful? Second, why are aid inflows neglected in the literature on growth acceleration (or episodes). Third, why is country vulnerability overlooked in the same literature? Our purpose is to address these puzzles, and in doing so two hypotheses are formulated and tested. First, we assume that aid can have a positive (catalytic) effect on the launching of growth episodes, as well as on their duration. Second, we assume that this effect is all the more significant with the intensity of the exogeneous shocks the country faces. Econometric tests do not reject these hypotheses. The paper first considers the origin of the puzzles and explains the hypotheses presented as the answer, and then introduces the models used to test these. Finally, it assesses the results and their implications. Once again, it appears that vulnerability does matter with regard to the impact of aid on both the probability of an occurrence of growth spells and on their duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2012. "Aid and Growth Accelerations: Vulnerability Matters," Post-Print halshs-00692388, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00692388
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier CADOT & Jaime de MELO & Patrick PLANE & Laurent WAGNER & Martha TESFAYE WOLDEMICHAEL, 2017. "L’Afrique subsaharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?," Working Paper 084c8bee-b301-4412-8ca4-c, Agence française de développement.
    2. Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Aid Effectiveness for Poverty Reduction: Lessons from Cross‑country Analyses, with a Special Focus on Vulnerable Countries," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(HS01), pages 217-261.
    3. Lisa Chauvet & Marin Ferry & Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba & Laurent Wagner, 2019. "Volatility widens inequality. Could aid and remittances help?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(1), pages 71-104, February.
    4. Michaël GOUJON & Sosso FEINDOUNO, 2016. "Human Assets Index retrospective series: 2016 update," Working Papers P179, FERDI.
    5. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Jean-Claude BERTHELEMY, 2017. "Dualism, Poverty Exits and Growth Accelerations," Working Papers 4301, FERDI.
    7. Andrew Curtis & Benjamin McLellan, 2023. "Framework for Assessment of the Economic Vulnerability of Energy-Resource-Exporting Countries," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, February.
    8. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," Working Papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    9. Sosso Feindouno & Michael Goujon, 2019. "Human Assets Index: Insights from a Retrospective Series Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 959-984, February.
    10. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Effect of Structural Economic Vulnerability on the Participation in International Trade," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-36, September.
    11. Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Identifying thresholds in aid effectiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 619-638, August.
    12. Michaël GOUJON & Mathilde CLOSSET & Sosso FEINDOUNO, 2014. "Human Assets Index Retrospective series: 2013 update," Working Papers P110, FERDI.
    13. Patrick Guillaumont & Phu Nguyen‐Van & Thi Kim Cuong Pham & Laurent Wagner, 2023. "Equal opportunity and poverty reduction: How should aid be allocated?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 550-607, February.
    14. Olivier Cadot & Jaime de Melo & Patrick Plane & Laurent Wagner & Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, 2016. "Industrialisation et transformation structurelle : l’Afrique subsaharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 24(2), pages 19-49.
    15. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2018. "Effect of multilateral trade liberalization on foreign direct investment outflows amid structural economic vulnerability in developing countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-29.
    16. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade flows and Poverty Reduction in Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.
    18. Rohen d'AIGLEPIERRE et Laurent Wagner, 2017. "Macroeconomic Crisis, Primary Education and Aid Effectiveness," Working Paper def86062-d26a-4379-af8d-c, Agence française de développement.
    19. Olivier CADOT & Jaime DE MELO & Patrick PLANE & Laurent WAGNER & Martha Tesfaye WOLDEMICHAEL, 2016. "Industrialization and Structural Change: Can Sub-Saharan Africa Develop without Factories?," Working Papers P143, FERDI.
    20. Ruxandra Mălina Petrescu-Mag & Dacinia Crina Petrescu & Ioan Gheorghe Oroian & Ovidiu Călin Safirescu & Nicoleta Bican-Brișan, 2016. "Environmental Equity through Negotiation: A Case Study on Urban Landfills and the Roma Community," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, June.
    21. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of structural economic vulnerability on the participation in international trade," EconStor Preprints 262004, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    22. Jean-François Hoarau, 2019. "La vie chère en Outre-Mer, un phénomène structurel ?," Post-Print hal-04315775, HAL.

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