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Has Structural Economic Vulnerability Decreased in Least Developed Countries? Lessons Drawn from Retrospective Indices

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  • Joël Cariolle
  • Michaël Goujon
  • Patrick Guillaumont

Abstract

The Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) is a well-recognised measure of the structural vulnerability of developing countries and is regularly used and published by the United Nations for cross-country comparison purposes, primarily to review the list of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). However, due to the revisions in methodology occurring over time, the official EVI cannot be used to assess the changes in vulnerability. In this paper, we use two retrospective series of the EVI, based on constant definitions. The real change in vulnerability is thus isolated from the impact of revisions in the design of the index, allowing comparison of the evolution of LDCs and non-LDCs. The implications of the revisions in the EVI design are then discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon & Patrick Guillaumont, 2016. "Has Structural Economic Vulnerability Decreased in Least Developed Countries? Lessons Drawn from Retrospective Indices," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 591-606, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:591-606
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1098631
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    1. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Joël CARIOLLE, 2011. "The Economic Vulnerability Index - 2010 Update," Working Papers I09, FERDI.
    3. Joël CARIOLLE & Michaël GOUJON, 2013. "A retrospective economic vulnerability index, 1990-2011 - Using the 2012 UN-CDP definitions," Working Papers I17, FERDI.
    4. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "Caught in a trap. Identifying the least developed countries," Post-Print hal-00436331, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Cadot & Jaime de Melo & Patrick Plane & Laurent Wagner & Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, 2016. "Industrialisation et transformation structurelle : l’Afrique subsaharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 24(2), pages 19-49.
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    3. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Exchange rate pressure, fiscal redistribution and poverty in developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1173-1203, November.
    5. Sosso Feindouno & Michael Goujon, 2019. "Human Assets Index: Insights from a Retrospective Series Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 959-984, February.
    6. Joël CARIOLLE, 2016. "The voracity and scarcity effects of export booms and busts on bribery," Working Papers P146, FERDI.
    7. Montfort Mlachila & René Tapsoba & Sampawende J. A. Tapsoba, 2017. "A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(2), pages 675-710, November.
    8. Sosso Feindouno, 2019. "Improving the measurement of export instability in the Economic Vulnerability Index: A simple proposal," Post-Print hal-02167897, HAL.
    9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Olivier CADOT & Jaime de MELO & Patrick PLANE & Laurent WAGNER & Martha TESFAYE WOLDEMICHAEL, 2017. "L’Afrique subsaharienne peut-elle se développer sans usines ?," Working Paper 084c8bee-b301-4412-8ca4-c, Agence française de développement.
    11. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on human development in developed and developing countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 943-983, November.
    12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Export product diversification and tax performance quality in developing countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 849-876, October.
    13. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Poverty volatility and poverty in developing countries," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 84-95, February.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Do Aid for Trade flows affect Technology Licensing in Recipient Countries?," EconStor Preprints 273419, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Sosso Feindouno, 2019. "Improving the measurement of export instability in the Economic Vulnerability Index: A simple proposal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1629-1638.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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