To What Extent Does the Fertility Rate Explain the Education Gap?

The theory of Quantity–Quality (Q–Q) trade-off suggests that given the resource constraints in a household, an increase in family size would result in lower investments in the human capital development of children. Following this theory, we investigate the role of fertility in explaining the educational gap between Muslims and Hindus in India. A historically large difference in the total fertility rates (TFR) between them, which is as high as 24% in 2015–2016, may have contributed to the existing gap in education. Using decomposition techniques, we find that family size accounts for about 10% of the gap in years of schooling between high-caste Hindus and Muslims. Examining the likelihood of completion of different levels of education, we find that the contribution of family size increases with the level of education, rising to 16% for secondary education. Upon further investigation, we find that the unmet need for family planning is higher for Muslim women than for Hindu women. Thus, appropriate supply side measures addressing these unmet needs may help to reduce the fertility gap, with the potential to reduce the education gap in due course. Additionally, with a comparatively higher desired fertility of Muslims on average, public investments in good-quality schooling, safer and cheaper transportation to schools, and general awareness initiatives about pecuniary and non-pecuniary benefits of schooling may reduce the Q–Q trade-off. This may weaken the association between fertility and education, which could go a long way in reducing the educational disadvantage of Muslim children.