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From Empty Pews To Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics

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  • Berman, Eli
  • Iannaccone, Laurence R.
  • Ragusa, Giuseppe

Abstract

Total fertility in the Catholic countries of Southern Europe has dropped to remarkably low rates (=1.4) despite continuing low rates female labor force participation and high historic fertility. We model three ways in which religion affects the demand for children – through norms, market wages, and childrearing costs. We estimate these effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for 13 European countries from 1960 to 2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962–65). Using nuns per capita as a proxy for service provision, we estimate fertility effects on the order of 300 to 400 children per nun. Moreover, nuns outperform priests as a predictor of fertility, suggesting that changes in childrearing costs dominate changes in theology and norms. Reduced church attendance also predicts fertility decline, but only for Catholics, not for Protestants. Service provision and attendance complement each other, a finding consistent with club models of religion.

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  • Berman, Eli & Iannaccone, Laurence R. & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2018. "From Empty Pews To Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 149-187, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:demeco:v:84:y:2018:i:2:p:149-187_1
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    2. Oliveira, Livio Luiz Soares de & Neto, Giácomo Balbinotto & Cortes, Renan Xavier, 2012. "Quem vai à igreja? Um teste de regressão logística ordenada do modelo de Azzi-Ehrenberg para o Brasil [Who goes to church: A test of the ordered logistic regression model of Azzi-Ehrenberg to Brazi," MPRA Paper 45092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mayssun El-Attar, 2013. "Trust, child care technology choice and female labor force participation," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 507-544, December.
    4. Sriya Iyer, 2016. "The New Economics of Religion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 395-441, June.
    5. de la Croix, David & Perrin, Faustine, 2018. "How far can economic incentives explain the French fertility and education transition?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 221-245.
    6. David de la Croix & Fabio Mariani & Marion Mercier, 2023. "Driven By Institutions, Shaped By Culture: Human Capital And The Secularization Of Marriage In Italy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1777-1818, November.
    7. David de la Croix & Faustine Perrin, 2016. "French Fertility and Education Transition: Rational Choice vs. Cultural Diffusion," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    8. Pelin AKYOL & Çağla ÖKTEN, 2024. "The role of religion in female labor supply: evidence from two Muslim denominations," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 116-153, March.
    9. David de la Croix & Clara Delavallade, 2018. "Religions, Fertility, And Growth In Southeast Asia," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 907-946, May.
    10. Noury, Abdul G. & Speciale, Biagio, 2016. "Social constraints and women's education: Evidence from Afghanistan under radical religious rule," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 821-841.
    11. Sandra Brée & David de la Croix, 2019. "Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 13(1), pages 25-54, January.
    12. Maryam Dilmaghani, 2019. "Religiosity, Secularity and Fertility in Canada," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 403-428, May.
    13. Gihleb, Rania & Giuntella, Osea, 2017. "Nuns and the effects of catholic schools. Evidence from Vatican II," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 191-213.
    14. Lozano, Fernando A., 2012. "What Happened to God's Time? The Evolution of Secularism and Hours of Work in America, Evidence from Religious Holidays," IZA Discussion Papers 6552, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Del Boca, Daniela & Locatelli, Marilena, 2006. "The Determinants of Motherhood and Work Status: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2414, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Huber, John D. & Stanig, Piero, 2011. "Church-state separation and redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 828-836.
    17. Jan Fałkowski & Przemysław Kurek, 2020. "The transformation of supreme values: Evidence from Poland on salvation through civic engagement," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 113-129, October.
    18. Gitanjali Sen & Mitul Surana & Rakesh Basant, 2023. "To What Extent Does the Fertility Rate Explain the Education Gap?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-31, June.
    19. Lehrer, Evelyn L., 2008. "The Role of Religion in Economic and Demographic Behavior in the United States: A Review of the Recent Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 3541, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Maryam Dilmaghani, 2021. "Deep-Level Religious Diversity and Work-Life Balance Satisfaction in Canada," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 315-350, February.
    21. Dierk Herzer, 2019. "A Note on the Effect of Religiosity on Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 991-998, June.
    22. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Jensen, Peter Sandholt, 2019. "Preaching democracy: The second Vatican council and the third wave," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 525-540.
    23. Ryohei Mogi & Albert Esteve & Vegard F. Skirbekk, 2022. "The Decline of Spanish Fertility: The Role of Religion," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1333-1346, December.
    24. Akyol, Pelin & Okten, Cagla, 2019. "The Role of Culture on Female Labor Supply: Evidence from Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 12620, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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