Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa

To design family planning policies in Sub-Saharan Africa that are based on reproductive empowerment instead of reproductive control, knowledge on fertility preferences and trade-offs between the number of children and child-raising quality is key. This study is the first to empirically investigate fertility decisions and the quantity–quality trade-off theory from a preferences perspective. For this purpose, we use a novel discrete choice experimental method, including three quality and one quantity aspect of child-raising, and three socio-economic drivers of fertility. The choice experiment was executed with 1000 men and women in rural Senegal and rural Uganda. We show that rural households prefer to have many children, but women and non-poor respondents demonstrate a lower preference for many children than men and poor respondents. We find that the quantity–quality trade-off is a two-sided story. On the one hand, for most of the quality attributes, we confirm the existence of a trade-off. On the other hand, quantity and quality are complementary when all children in the household can attain a lower secondary school diploma. Our results imply that improving living conditions and access to infrastructure in rural areas may empower people to make decisions leading to a lower fertility. Aligning family planning programs with reproductive justice requires a shift in focus from reproductive control, based on mere expansion of contraceptive use, to reproductive empowerment, based on preference-based family planning programs. Improving rural livelihoods in general, and specific targeting of family planning programs to people with low-fertility preferences could be a first step.