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What Has Driven the Great Fertility Decline in Developing Countries since 1960?

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  • Jakob B. Madsen
  • Solmaz MOSLEHI
  • Cong WANG

Abstract

Several developing countries are currently experiencing a significant fertility decline, however, academic economists have paid little attention to this transition. This paper seeks to explain the fertility transition by infant mortality, urbanisation, income, culture and educational attainment of females and males using annual data for 92 developing countries over the period 1960–2014. External instruments are used to deal with endogeneity. The results suggest that increasing per capita income, improved female education and increasing secularisation have been important determinants for declining fertility in the developing world.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen & Solmaz MOSLEHI & Cong WANG, 2018. "What Has Driven the Great Fertility Decline in Developing Countries since 1960?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 738-757, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:54:y:2018:i:4:p:738-757
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1303675
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    Cited by:

    1. Eline D'Haene & Juan Tur Cardona & Stijn Speelman & Koen Schoors & Marijke D'Haese, 2021. "Unraveling preferences for religious ties in food transactions: A consumer perspective," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 701-716, July.
    2. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Frank Götmark & Malte Andersson, 2023. "Achieving sustainable population: Fertility decline in many developing countries follows modern contraception, not economic growth," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1606-1617, June.
    4. Georgios Mavropoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "On the drivers of the fertility rebound," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 821-845, August.
    5. Luppi, Francesca & Migheli, Matteo & Pronzato, Chiara, 2023. "Re-partnering and fertility," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202307, University of Turin.
    6. D'Haene, E. & Desiere, S. & D'Haese, M. & Verbeke, W. & Schoors, K., 2018. "Religion, food choices, and demand seasonality: Evidence from the Ethiopian milk market," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276029, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Migheli, Matteo & Pronzato, Chiara, 2023. "Re-partnering and fertility," SocArXiv ejt8u, Center for Open Science.
    8. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.

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