Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space
Abstract Economists have often argued that high fertility rates are mainly driven by women’s demand for children (and not by family planning efforts) with low levels of unwanted fertility across countries (and hence with little room for family planning efforts to reduce population growth). We study the relationship between wanted fertility and number of children born in a panel of 200 country-years controlling for country fixed effects and global time trends. In general, we find a close relationship between wanted and actual fertility, with one desired child leading to one additional birth. However, our results also indicate that in the last 20 years, the level of unwanted births has stayed at 2 across African countries but has, on average, decreased from 1 to close to 0 in other developing countries. Hence, women in African countries are less able to translate child preferences into birth outcomes than women in other developing countries, and forces other than fertility demand have been important for previous fertility declines in many developing countries. Family planning efforts only partially explain the observed temporal and spatial differences in achieving desired fertility levels.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 53 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Web page: http://www.populationassociation.org/
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13524|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shareen Joshi & T. Schultz, 2013.
"Family Planning and Women’s and Children’s Health: Long-Term Consequences of an Outreach Program in Matlab, Bangladesh,"
Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 149-180, February.
- Joshi, Shareen & Schultz, T. Paul, 2012. "Family Planning and Women's and Children's Health: Long Term Consequences of an Outreach Program in Matlab, Bangladesh," IZA Discussion Papers 6551, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Pritchett, Lant H. & DEC, 1994. "Desired fertility and the impact of population policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank.
- Tomás Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220.
- Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
- Grant Miller, 2010. "Contraception as Development? New Evidence from Family Planning in Colombia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(545), pages 709-736, 06.
- Canning, David & Günther, Isabel & Linnemayr, Sebastian & Bloom, David, 2013. "Fertility choice, mortality expectations, and interdependent preferences—An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-289.
- David Lam, 2011. "How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, November.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.
- Nava Ashraf & Erica Field & Jean Lee, 2014. "Household Bargaining and Excess Fertility: An Experimental Study in Zambia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2210-2237, July.
- Nikos Alexandratos, 2005. "Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food, Agriculture, and Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(2), pages 237-258.
- Bruno Schoumaker, 2013. "A Stata module for computing fertility rates and TFRs from birth histories: tfr2," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(38), pages 1093-1144, May.
- John B. Casterline, 2009. "Demographic Transition and Unwanted Fertility: A Fresh Assessment (The Mahbub Ul Haq Memorial Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 387-421.
- Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "Education and fertility in sub-Saharan africa: Individual and community effects," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 233-250, May.
- John Casterline & Laila El-Zeini, 2007. "The estimation of Unwanted Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(4), pages 729-745, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)