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The Illusion of Stable Preferences Over Major Life Decisions

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  • Mueller, Maximilian
  • Hicks, Joan Hamory
  • Johnson-Hanks, Jennifer
  • Miguel, Edward

Abstract

We examine the stability of preferences over time using panel data from Kenya on fertility intentions, realizations, and recall of intentions. We find that desired fertility is very unstable, but that most people perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time. Moreover, when asked to recall past intentions, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. Biased recall of preferences over a major life decision could have important implications for measuring excess fertility, the evolution of norms, and the perceived need for family planning programs.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mueller, Maximilian & Hicks, Joan Hamory & Johnson-Hanks, Jennifer & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "The Illusion of Stable Preferences Over Major Life Decisions," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2kk9b9tt, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt2kk9b9tt
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Bellemare, Marc F. & Novak, Lindsey & Steinmetz, Tara L., 2015. "All in the family: Explaining the persistence of female genital cutting in West Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 252-265.
    7. John B. Casterline & John Bongaarts & Ian Askew & Ndugga Maggwa & Francis Obare, 2017. "Fertility Transitions in Ghana and Kenya: Trends, Determinants, and Implications for Policy and Programs," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43, pages 289-307, May.
    8. Maria Iacovou & Lara Patrício Tavares, 2011. "Yearning, Learning, and Conceding: Reasons Men and Women Change Their Childbearing Intentions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 89-123, March.
    9. Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen, 2016. "Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 55-83, February.
    10. David Eil & Justin M. Rao, 2011. "The Good News-Bad News Effect: Asymmetric Processing of Objective Information about Yourself," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 114-138, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Yeatman & Jenny Trinitapoli & Sarah Garver, 2020. "The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2047-2056, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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