IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/respol/v55y2026i2s0048733325002021.html

Robots and the regionalization of global value chains

Author

Listed:
  • Antonietti, Roberto
  • Burlina, Chiara
  • Franco, Chiara

Abstract

In this paper, we study whether and to what extent exposure to industrial robots leads to the regionalization of global value chains (GVC) for a group of seven European countries and ten manufacturing sectors. We use country-industry-year data on GVC participation for the period 1995-2018 from the OECD-ICIO database and we merge it with industrial robot data from the IFR. To assess the non-spurious long-run relationship between robots and GVC dynamics, we adopt a panel cointegration approach and dynamic OLS regressions, while we assess the direction of causality using a panel vector error correction approach. Our results suggest that, on average, higher exposure to robotization Granger causes a higher GVC regionalization, which is more pronounced when the source of foreign value-added moves from Asian economies to Eastern Europe. We also find that sectoral heterogeneity matters, since a stronger robot-induced regionalization of GVCs tends to occur in more upstream sectors and with high labour intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonietti, Roberto & Burlina, Chiara & Franco, Chiara, 2026. "Robots and the regionalization of global value chains," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:55:y:2026:i:2:s0048733325002021
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2025.105373
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733325002021
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.respol.2025.105373?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sourafel Girma & Holger Görg, 2004. "Outsourcing, Foreign Ownership, and Productivity: Evidence from UK Establishment‐level Data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 817-832, November.
    2. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Amendolagine, Vito & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Rabellotti, Roberta & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2019. "Local sourcing in developing countries: The role of foreign direct investments and global value chains," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 73-88.
    4. Richard Baldwin & Javier Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015. "Supply-chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1682-1721, November.
    5. Jung, Jin Hwa & Lim, Dong-Geon, 2020. "Industrial robots, employment growth, and labor cost: A simultaneous equation analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Tamara Burdisso & Maximo Sangiacomo, 2016. "Panel time series: Review of the methodological evolution," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 16(2), pages 424-442, June.
    7. Bontadini, Filippo & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Meliciani, Valentina & Savona, Maria, 2024. "Technology, global value chains and functional specialisation in Europe," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(2).
    8. Filippo Bontadini & Valentina Meliciani & Maria Savona & Ariel Wirkierman, 2022. "Nearshoring and Farsharing in Europe within the Global Economy," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 23(05), pages 37-42, September.
    9. Juan Alcácer & John Cantwell & Lucia Piscitello, 2016. "Internationalization in the information age: A new era for places, firms, and international business networks?," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 47(5), pages 499-512, June.
    10. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2013. "Organizing the Global Value Chain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2127-2204, November.
    11. Dalia Marin, 2018. "Global Value Chains, the Rise of the Robots and Human Capital," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(1), pages 46-49, April.
    12. Kinkel, Steffen & Capestro, Mauro & Di Maria, Eleonora & Bettiol, Marco, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and relocation of production activities: An empirical cross-national study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    14. Faber, Marius & Kilic, Kemal & Kozliakov, Gleb & Marin, Dalia, 2025. "Global value chains in a world of uncertainty and automation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Hall, Stephen G & Milne, Alistair, 1994. "The Relevance of P-Star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 597-604, May.
    16. Pasinetti, Luigi L, 1988. "Growing Subsystems, Vertically Hyper-integrated Sectors and the Labour Theory of Value," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 12(1), pages 125-134, March.
    17. Alan M. Rugman & Alain Verbeke, 2005. "A Perspective on Regional and Global Strategies of Multinational Enterprises," Chapters, in: Analysis of Multinational Strategic Management, chapter 8, pages 104-119, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Beata Javorcik & Lucas Kitzmüller & Helena Schweiger & Muhammed A. Yıldırım, 2024. "Economic costs of friendshoring," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2871-2908, July.
    19. Krenz, Astrid & Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Robots, reshoring, and the lot of low-skilled workers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
    21. Dierk Herzer, 2012. "Outward FDI, Total Factor Productivity and Domestic Output: Evidence from Germany," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 155-174, October.
    22. Faber, Marius, 2020. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    23. Peter J. Buckley, 2011. "International Integration and Coordination in the Global Factory," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 269-283, April.
    24. Lionel Fontagné & Ariell Reshef & Gianluca Santoni & Giulio Vannelli, 2024. "Automation, global value chains and functional specialization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 662-691, May.
    25. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    26. Cilekoglu, Akin A. & Moreno, Rosina & Ramos, Raul, 2024. "The impact of robot adoption on global sourcing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    27. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    28. Ana Margarida Fernandes & Hiau Looi Kee & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Determinants of Global Value Chain Participation: Cross-Country Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 329-360.
    29. Bart Kamp & Juan José Gibaja, 2021. "Adoption of digital technologies and backshoring decisions: is there a link?," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 380-402, December.
    30. Dierk Herzer & Julian Donaubauer, 2018. "The long-run effect of foreign direct investment on total factor productivity in developing countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 309-342, March.
    31. Andreas Baur & Lisandra Flach & Isabella Gourevich, 2022. "The Effect of Robotization in OECD Countries on Latin American Exports," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 23(05), pages 33-36, September.
    32. Artuc, Erhan & Bastos, Paulo & Rijkers, Bob, 2023. "Robots, tasks, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    33. Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "How Global Are Global Value Chains? A New Approach To Measure International Fragmentation," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 66-92, January.
    34. Pinheiro, Alexandra & Sochirca, Elena & Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha, 2023. "Automation and off(re)shoring: A meta-regression analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    35. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    36. Marcel P. Timmer & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "Slicing Up Global Value Chains," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    37. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2016. "Global Value Chains: A Survey Of Drivers And Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 278-301, April.
    38. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    39. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    40. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    41. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2017. "On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 12549, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    42. Borsato, Andrea & Lorentz, André, 2023. "The Kaldor–Verdoorn law at the age of robots and AI," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(10).
    43. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    44. David Klenert & Enrique Fernández-Macías & José-Ignacio Antón, 2023. "Do robots really destroy jobs? Evidence from Europe," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 44(1), pages 280-316, February.
    45. Roberto Scazzieri, 1990. "Vertical Integration in Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 20-46, September.
    46. Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Klenert, David & Antón, José-Ignacio, 2021. "Not so disruptive yet? Characteristics, distribution and determinants of robots in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 76-89.
    47. Nicholas Bloom & Luis Garicano & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2014. "The Distinct Effects of Information Technology and Communication Technology on Firm Organization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 2859-2885, December.
    48. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    49. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    50. Dachs, Bernhard & Kinkel, Steffen & Jäger, Angela, 2019. "Bringing it all back home? Backshoring of manufacturing activities and the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1-1.
    51. Marcel P Timmer & Sébastien Miroudot & Gaaitzen J de Vries, 2019. "Functional specialisation in trade," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30.
    52. Lucía Bolea & Rosa Duarte & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings & Sofía Jiménez & Julio Sánchez‐Chóliz, 2022. "The role of regions in global value chains: an analysis for the European Union," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(4), pages 771-794, August.
    53. Ancarani, Alessandro & Di Mauro, Carmela & Mascali, Francesco, 2019. "Backshoring strategy and the adoption of Industry 4.0: Evidence from Europe," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 360-371.
    54. Lavoie, Marc, 1997. "Pasinetti's Vertically Hyper-integrated Sectors and Natural Prices," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 21(4), pages 453-467, July.
    55. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    56. Astrid Krenz & Holger Strulik, 2021. "Quantifying reshoring at the macro‐level—Measurement and applications," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 1200-1229, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franco, Chiara & Suppressa, Francesco, 2025. "Robot, trade and employment: Unravelling the relationship within the European context," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 407-422.
    2. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2025. "Robots and wages: A meta-analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 541-567.
    3. McWilliam, Sarah E. & Kim, Jung Kwan & Mudambi, Ram & Nielsen, Bo Bernhard, 2020. "Global value chain governance: Intersections with international business," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    4. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, . "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2).
    5. Pinheiro, Alexandra & Sochirca, Elena & Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha, 2023. "Automation and off(re)shoring: A meta-regression analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    6. Andreas Baur & Lisandra Flach & Isabella Gourevich & Florian Unger, 2023. "North-South Trade: The Impact of Robotization," CESifo Working Paper Series 10865, CESifo.
    7. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2014. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from MENA Net Oil Importing Countries," MPRA Paper 80780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Zheng, Dawei & Wang, Tingdong, 2025. "Do industrial robot applications upgrade the global value chain position? Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Dario Guarascio & Alessandro Piccirillo & Jelena Reljic, 2024. "Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis," LEM Papers Series 2024/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Sharfaei, Shahab & Bittner, Jan, 2024. "Technological employment: Evidence from worldwide robot adoption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    11. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Public capital and productive economy profits: evidence from OECD economies," MPRA Paper 106848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    13. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.
    14. Sudatta Bharati Mohapatra & Nirmal Chandra Kar, 2022. "Revisiting the Long-Run Dynamic Linkage between Dividends and Share Price with Advanced Panel Econometrics Techniques," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    15. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    16. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    17. Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "The importance of energy quality in energy intensive manufacturing: Evidence from panel cointegration and panel FMOLS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1819-1825.
    18. T. Gries & M. Redlin, 2020. "Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 923-944, October.
    19. Shujaat Naeem Azmi & Tasneem Khan & Wajahat Azmi & Naghma Azhar, 2023. "A panel cointegration analysis of linkages between international trade and tourism: case of India and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 5157-5176, December.
    20. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2021. "Renewable electricity and economic growth relationship in the long run: Panel data econometric evidence from the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-341.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:55:y:2026:i:2:s0048733325002021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/respol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.