IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juecon/v145y2025ics0094119024000950.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortgage innovation and house price booms

Author

Listed:
  • Bäckman, Claes
  • Lutz, Chandler

Abstract

We study how mortgage innovation can cause a housing boom even within a robust regulatory framework and strictly enforced recourse borrowing. Specifically, we find that the 2003 introduction of interest-only (IO) mortgages in Denmark ignited a housing boom that increased house prices 36 percent. In line with IO loans lowering debt-service payments and relaxing payment-to-income constraints, results show higher IO loan uptake and house price growth in areas with greater ex-ante benefits of such mortgages. Overall, our results are relevant for the many countries where IO loans play a sizable role in mortgage finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Bäckman, Claes & Lutz, Chandler, 2025. "Mortgage innovation and house price booms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:145:y:2025:i:c:s0094119024000950
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103725
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119024000950
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jue.2024.103725?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    2. Conklin, James N. & Frame, W. Scott & Gerardi, Kristopher & Liu, Haoyang, 2022. "Villains or scapegoats? The role of subprime borrowers in driving the U.S. housing boom," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Laura Feiveson & Zachary Liscow & William Gui Woolston, 2012. "Does State Fiscal Relief during Recessions Increase Employment? Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 118-145, August.
    4. Abildgren, Kim & Hansen, Niels Lynggård & Kuchler, Andreas, 2018. "Overoptimism and house price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Manuel Adelino & William B. McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," NBER Working Papers 27499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2012. "The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 Cash for Clunkers Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1107-1142.
    7. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    8. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "The Mortgage Rate Conundrum," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(1), pages 121-156.
    9. Kathleen Scanlon & Jens Lunde & Christine Whitehead, 2008. "Mortgage Product Innovation in Advanced Economies: More Choice, More Risk," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 109-131.
    10. Scanlon, Kathleen & Lunde, Jens & Whitehead, Christine M. E., 2008. "Mortgage product innovation in advanced economies: more choice, more risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29889, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    12. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    14. Jane K. Dokko & Benjamin J. Keys & Lindsay E. Relihan, 2019. "Affordability, financial innovation and the start of the housing boom," CEP Discussion Papers dp1611, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Steffen Andersen & John Y. Campbell & Kasper Meisner Nielsen & Tarun Ramadorai, 2020. "Sources of Inaction in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3184-3230, October.
    16. Daniel Greenwald & Adam Guren, 2019. "Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?," 2019 Meeting Papers 1334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Brantly Callaway & Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment," Papers 2107.02637, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    18. Davis, Morris A. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Peter, Tobias J. & Pinto, Edward J., 2020. "The Impact of Federal Housing Policy on Housing Demand and Homeownership: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    19. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis," NBER Working Papers 18082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas Fisher, 2021. "Why were interest only mortgages so population during U.S. housing boom?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 205-224, July.
    21. David Berger & Nicholas Turner & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Stimulating Housing Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 277-321, February.
    22. Kathleen Scanlon & Jens Lunde & Christine Whitehead, 2008. "Mortgage Product Innovation in Advanced Economies: More Choice, More Risk," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 109-131.
    23. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2017. "An extrapolative model of house price dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 147-170.
    24. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Geissler & Kyle Mangum & James W Roberts & Andrew Karolyi, 2020. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Strategy and Performance of Investors in the Housing Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5212-5247.
    25. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
    26. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    27. Asaf Bernstein & Peter Koudijs, 2021. "The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth through Amortization," NBER Working Papers 28574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. João F. Cocco, 2013. "Evidence on the Benefits of Alternative Mortgage Products," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1663-1690, August.
    29. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Jakobsen, Katrine Marie & Søgaard, Jakob Egholt, 2022. "Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: New insights and a new approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    31. Jane K. Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Skander J. van den Heuvel & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane M. Sherlund & Jae W. Sim, 2009. "Monetary policy and the housing bubble," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Chris Cunningham & Kristopher Gerardi & Lily Shen, 2021. "The Double Trigger for Mortgage Default: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3943-3964, June.
    33. Linda Sandris Larsen & Claus Munk & Rikke Sejer Nielsen & Jesper Rangvid, 2024. "How Do Interest-Only Mortgages Affect Consumption and Saving over the Life Cycle?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(3), pages 1970-1991, March.
    34. Manuel Adelino & W. Ben McCartney & Antoinette Schoar, 2020. "The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market," Working Papers 20-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    35. Andrew F. Haughwout & Donghoon Lee & Joseph Tracy & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2011. "Real estate investors, the leverage cycle, and the housing market crisis," Staff Reports 514, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    36. Karpestam, Peter & Johansson, Sebastian, 2019. "Interest-only-mortgages and housing market fluctuations in Denmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    37. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2016. "Editor's Choice Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1635-1670.
    38. Lu Han & Chandler Lutz & Benjamin Sand & Derek Stacey & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Effects of a Targeted Financial Constraint on the Housing Market [Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3742-3788.
    39. Bronson S Argyle & Taylor D Nadauld & Christopher J Palmer & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5416-5462.
    40. Tracey, Belinda & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2021. "The consumption response to borrowing constraints in the mortgage market," Bank of England working papers 919, Bank of England.
    41. Bäckman, Claes & Lutz, Chandler, 2020. "The impact of interest-only loans on affordability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claes Bäckman & Natalia Khorunzhina, 2024. "Interest‐Only Mortgages And Consumption Growth: Evidence From A Mortgage Market Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1049-1079, May.
    2. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    3. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    4. Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
    5. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    6. Pancrazi, Roberto & Pietrunti, Mario, 2019. "Natural expectations and home equity extraction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. James A. Kahn & Benjamin S. Kay, 2019. "The Impact of Credit Risk Mispricing on Mortgage Lending during the Subprime Boom," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Christopher L Foote & Lara Loewenstein & Paul S Willen, 2021. "Cross-Sectional Patterns of Mortgage Debt during the Housing Boom: Evidence and Implications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 229-259.
    9. Conklin, James N. & Frame, W. Scott & Gerardi, Kristopher & Liu, Haoyang, 2022. "Villains or scapegoats? The role of subprime borrowers in driving the U.S. housing boom," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Ronel Elul & Deeksha Gupta & David K. Musto, 2025. "Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times," Working Papers 25-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Explaining the Boom–Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse‐Engineering Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1783, December.
    12. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. James A Kahn & Benjamin S Kay, 2020. "The impact of credit risk mispricing on mortgage lending during the subprime boom," BIS Working Papers 875, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Botsch, Matthew J., 2020. "The Long Shadows of the Great Inflation: Evidence from Residential Mortgages," CEPR Discussion Papers 14934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    16. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    18. Charles G. Nathanson & Eric Zwick, 2017. "Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 23030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Elliot Anenberg & Aurel Hizmo & Edward Kung & Raven Molloy, 2019. "Measuring mortgage credit availability: A frontier estimation approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 865-882, September.
    20. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest only mortgages; Housing booms; Mortgage lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:145:y:2025:i:c:s0094119024000950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.