IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v37y2012i4p439-451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Jikun
  • Yang, Jun
  • Msangi, Siwa
  • Rozelle, Scott
  • Weersink, Alfons

Abstract

This study seeks to assess the future impacts of biofuel production on regional agricultural and related sectors over the next decade with a specific focus on the vulnerable regions of developing nations. Using a modification of the GTAP modeling platform to account for the global interactions of regional biofuel and food markets, the analysis shows that biofuel production levels depend on the assumption about the future price of energy and the nature of the substitutability between biofuels and petroleum-based transport fuels. Low energy prices reduce the demand for biofuels and thus require greater government support to meet the desired production targets. At the other extreme, when prices are high and there is scope for substituting biofuels for petroleum-based fuels, the volume of biofuels produced will exceed the mandates. Even when biofuels are being mainly produced in developed countries, our results indicate that there are impact pathways that extend far beyond the borders of the US, Brazil and the EU. Prices of feedstock and non-feedstock commodities rise in developing countries. There is also a rise in value added from the agricultural sector—a gain that is enjoyed by the owners of land and labor, including unskilled. Hence, to the extent that agriculture is a key sector in getting growth started and addressing poverty needs, the emergence of biofuels can (in this way at least) be a positive force.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 439-451.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:37:y:2012:i:4:p:439-451
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.04.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919212000474
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.04.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jayson Beckman, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets," NBER Chapters, in: The Intended and Unintended Effects of US Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies, pages 189-221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sorda, Giovanni & Banse, Martin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2010. "An overview of biofuel policies across the world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6977-6988, November.
    3. Lee, Huey-Lin & Hertel, Thomas W. & Sohngen, Brent & Ramankutty, Navin, 2005. "Towards An Integrated Land Use Database for Assessing the Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation," Technical Papers 283423, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Thaeripour, Farzad & Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Beckman, Jayson F. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6452, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Linden, Anna-Lisa & Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika & Eriksson, Bjorn, 2006. "Efficient and inefficient aspects of residential energy behaviour: What are the policy instruments for change?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1918-1927, September.
    6. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Schut, Marc & Slingerland, Maja & Locke, Anna, 2010. "Biofuel developments in Mozambique. Update and analysis of policy, potential and reality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5151-5165, September.
    8. Pingali, P. L. & Traxler, G., 2002. "Changing locus of agricultural research: will the poor benefit from biotechnology and privatization trends?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 223-238, June.
    9. Agoramoorthy, Govindasamy & Hsu, Minna J. & Chaudhary, Sunita & Shieh, Po-Chuen, 2009. "Can biofuel crops alleviate tribal poverty in India's drylands?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(Supplemen), pages 118-124, November.
    10. Birur, Dileep & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally, 2008. "Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2413, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    11. Christopher B. Barrett & Jau Rong Li, 2002. "Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 292-307.
    12. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2010. "Biofuels : markets, targets and impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5364, The World Bank.
    13. Mark W. Rosegrant & Tingju Zhu & Siwa Msangi & Timothy Sulser, 2008. "Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 495-505.
    14. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael, 2010. "Biofuels, poverty, and growth: a computable general equilibrium analysis of Mozambique," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 81-105, February.
    15. Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani E. & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad E. & Chavez, Eddie C. & Pan, Suwen & Carriquiry, M, 2009. "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), April.
    16. Alison Burrell & Maria Blanco & Stephan Hubertus Gay & Martin Henseler & Aikaterini Kavallari & Robert M'barek & Ignacio Perez & Axel Tonini, 2010. "Impacts of the EU Biofuel Target on Agricultural Markets and Land Use - A Comparative Modelling Assessment," JRC Working Papers JRC58484, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    17. Charles, Michael B. & Ryan, Rachel & Ryan, Neal & Oloruntoba, Richard, 2007. "Public policy and biofuels: The way forward?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5737-5746, November.
    18. D. Gale Johnson, 1998. "Food Security and World Trade Prospects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 941-947.
    19. Pousa, Gabriella P.A.G. & Santos, Andre L.F. & Suarez, Paulo A.Z., 2007. "History and policy of biodiesel in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5393-5398, November.
    20. Kretschmer, Bettina & Peterson, Sonja, 2010. "Integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models -- A survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 673-686, May.
    21. Thomas W. Hertel & Wallace E. Tyner & Dileep K. Birur, 2010. "The Global Impacts of Biofuel Mandates," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-100.
    22. Martin Banse & Hans van Meijl & Andrzej Tabeau & Geert Woltjer, 2008. "Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 117-141, June.
    23. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    24. Stewart Skinner & Alfons Weersink & Cornelius F. deLange, 2012. "Impact of Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles (DDGS) on Ration and Fertilizer Costs of Swine Farmers," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(3), pages 335-356, September.
    25. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Gender Implications of Biofuels Expansion in Africa: The Case of Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1649-1662, September.
    26. Yang, Jun & Huang, Jikun & Li, Ninghui & Rozelle, Scott & Martin, Will, 2011. "The impact of the Doha trade proposals on farmers' incomes in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 439-452, May.
    27. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    28. Paarlberg, Robert, 2010. "Food Politics: What Everyone Needs to Know," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195389593.
    29. Otsuka, Keijiro & Gascon, Fe & Asano, Seki, 1994. "'Second-generation' MVs and the evolution of the green revolution: the case of Central Luzon, 1966-1990," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 283-295, May.
    30. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "The Doha Agenda Negotiations on Agriculture: What Could They Deliver?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1211-1218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ihle, Rico & Rubin, Ofir D., 2013. "Consequences of unintended food policies: Food price dynamics subject to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 96-105.
    2. Negash, Martha & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2013. "Biofuels and food security: Micro-evidence from Ethiopia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 963-976.
    3. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    4. Olivia Riera & Johan Swinnen, 2014. "Household level spillover effects from biofuels," LICOS Discussion Papers 35614, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    5. Patrizia Ghisellini & Marco Setti & Sergio Ulgiati, 2016. "Energy and land use in worldwide agriculture: an application of life cycle energy and cluster analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 799-837, June.
    6. Machado, P.G. & Cunha, M. & Walter, A. & Faaij, A. & Guilhoto, J.J.M., 2021. "Biobased economy for Brazil: Impacts and strategies for maximizing socioeconomic benefits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Kakali Mukhopadhyay & Paul J. Thomassin & Jingyuan Zhang, 2018. "Food security in China at 2050: a global CGE exercise," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, December.
    8. Riera, Olivia & Swinnen, Jo, 2015. "Household level spillover effects from biofuels: Evidence from Ethiopia," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212291, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Riera, Olivia & Swinnen, Johan, 2016. "Household level spillover effects from biofuels: Evidence from castor in Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 55-65.
    10. Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana & Kelemen, Agnes & Tirado-Herrero, Sergio & Thomas, Stefan & Thema, Johannes & Mzavanadze, Nora & Hauptstock, Dorothea & Suerkemper, Felix & Teubler, Jens & Gupta, Mukesh & Chatter, 2016. "Measuring multiple impacts of low-carbon energy options in a green economy context," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1409-1426.
    11. Dian Iriani, Latifah & Widodo, Tri, 2019. "The Implication of B20 Policy on Environment," MPRA Paper 91313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Dazhuan Ge & Hualou Long & Li Ma & Yingnan Zhang & Shuangshuang Tu, 2017. "Analysis Framework of China’s Grain Production System: A Spatial Resilience Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Ferede, Tadele & Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Mekonnen, Alemu & Guta, Fantu & Levin, Jörgen & Köhlin, Gunnar, 2013. "Biofuels, Economic Growth, and the External Sector in Ethiopia: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Discussion Papers dp-13-08-efd, Resources For the Future.
    14. Yang, Jun & Huang, Jikun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2013. "The Role of Cultivated Land Expansion on the Impacts to Global Agricultural Markets from Biofuels," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149614, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ji, Xi & Long, Xianling, 2016. "A review of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of biofuel and energy policy recommendations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 41-52.
    16. Jihong Chen & Theo Notteboom & Xiang Liu & Hang Yu & Nikitas Nikitakos & Chen Yang, 2019. "The Nicaragua Canal: potential impact on international shipping and its attendant challenges," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(1), pages 79-98, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Global biofuel production and poverty in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 246-255.
    2. Vitezslav Pisa & Jan Bruha & Vitezslav Pisa, 2011. "Dynamics of the Commodity Prices and Quantities: An Analysis using a Dynamic Multiregional CGE Model," EcoMod2011 2889, EcoMod.
    3. Doumax, Virginie & Philip, Jean-Marc & Sarasa, Cristina, 2014. "Biofuels, tax policies and oil prices in France: Insights from a dynamic CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 603-614.
    4. María Blanco & Marcel Adenäuer & Shailesh Shrestha & Arno Becker, 2012. "Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach," JRC Working Papers JRC80037, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    5. Beckman, Jayson & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wallace, 2011. "Validating energy-oriented CGE models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 799-806, September.
    6. Doumax-Tagliavini, Virginie & Sarasa, Cristina, 2018. "Looking towards policies supporting biofuels and technological change: Evidence from France," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 430-439.
    7. Yang, Jun & Huang, Jikun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2013. "The Role of Cultivated Land Expansion on the Impacts to Global Agricultural Markets from Biofuels," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149614, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Hoefnagels, Ric & Banse, Martin & Dornburg, Veronika & Faaij, André, 2013. "Macro-economic impact of large-scale deployment of biomass resources for energy and materials on a national level—A combined approach for the Netherlands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 727-744.
    9. Virginie Doumax & Jean-Marc Philip & Cristina Sarasa, 2013. "Biofuels, tax policies and oil price: insights from a dynamic CGE model," EcoMod2013 5417, EcoMod.
    10. Virginie Doumax-Tagliavini & Cristina Sarasa, University of Zaragoza, 2014. "Biofuels, technological change and uncertainty: Evidence from France," EcoMod2014 6941, EcoMod.
    11. Banse, Martin & Rothe, Andrea & Tabeau, Andrzej & Meijl, Hans van & Woltjer, Geert, 2013. "Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies," Working papers 155706, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2012. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, December.
    13. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    14. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    15. Jun Yang & Huanguang Qiu & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle, 2008. "Fighting global food price rises in the developing world: the response of China and its effect on domestic and world markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 453-464, November.
    16. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Haddad, Salwa & Britz, Wolfgang & Börner, Jan, 2017. "Impacts Of Increased Forest Biomass Demand In The European Bioeconomy," 57th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 13-15, 2017 261986, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    18. Panichelli, Luis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2015. "Impact of agricultural-based biofuel production on greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change: Key modelling choices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 344-360.
    19. Wianwiwat, Suthin & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2013. "Is there a role for biofuels in promoting energy self sufficiency and security? A CGE analysis of biofuel policy in Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 543-555.
    20. Johanna Choumert & Pascale Combes Motel & Charlain Guegang, 2017. "The Biofuel-Development Nexus: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2017.04, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:37:y:2012:i:4:p:439-451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.