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The impact of the Doha trade proposals on farmers' incomes in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Jun
  • Huang, Jikun
  • Li, Ninghui
  • Rozelle, Scott
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential impacts of the Doha trade proposals (those of the USA, EU and G20) on agricultural production and incomes of China's farmers by region and income group. By linking a global trade model to a national policy model which itself is connected to a set of disaggregated household data, we are able to assess the effects of the proposed Doha trade liberalizations on households both at the national and regional levels. According to the results of the model, the impacts of a Doha Round agreement on households differ significantly from those of China's WTO accession. China's economy would benefit from the trade liberalization associated with the Doha Round. The overall impacts, however, are relatively minor. Although farmers will benefit at the national level, the gains among farmers vary largely by income group and province. Also, the impacts on households that produce different types of crops differ.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Jun & Huang, Jikun & Li, Ninghui & Rozelle, Scott & Martin, Will, 2011. "The impact of the Doha trade proposals on farmers' incomes in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 439-452, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:439-452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rae, Allan N. & Strutt, Anna, 2003. "The Current Round of Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Should We Bother About Domestic Support?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 4(2).
    2. Anderson, Kym & Huang, Jikun & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 443-456.
    3. Rae, Allan N. & Strutt, Anna, 2003. "The Current Round of Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Should We Bother About Domestic Support? Technical Annex," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 4(2).
    4. Jikun Huang & Ninghui Li & Scott Rozelle, 2003. "Trade Reform, Household Effects, and Poverty in Rural China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1292-1298.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 439-451.
    2. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Deng, Xiangzheng & Wang, Jinxia & Rozelle, Scott, 2015. "Urbanization, Food Production and Food Security in China," 2015 Allied Social Science Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 3-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts 189685, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Grethe, Harald, 2012. "Trade policy impacts under alternative land market regimes in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1071-1089.
    4. Gabriele Standardi & Federico Perali & Luca Pieroni, 2014. "World Tariff Liberalization in Agriculture: An Assessment Following a Global CGE Trade Model for EU15 Regions," Working Papers 2014.25, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2013. "Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1029-1042.
    6. Perali, Federico & Pieroni, Luca & Standardi, Gabriele, 2012. "World tariff liberalization in agriculture: An assessment using a global CGE trade model for EU15 regions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 155-180.

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