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Liquidity risk contagion in the interbank market

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  • Eross, Andrea
  • Urquhart, Andrew
  • Wolfe, Simon

Abstract

This paper studies liquidity risk contagion within the interbank market by assessing the long-run relationship of short-term interest rate spreads from January 2002 to December 2015. In particular, we model the interaction between the LIBOR–OIS spread, euro fixed-float OIS swap rate and the three-month US-German bond spread and discover strong evidence of structural innovations affecting the interbank market. We find that when the short-term interbank market is affected by a liquidity shock, the LIBOR–OIS spread is a leader in moving back to equilibrium, while the euro-dollar currency swap rate and the US-German bond spreads are followers. Moreover, we find long-run cointegrating relationships and bi-directional causality between the spreads. However, structural breaks identified as prospective financial crises affect the long-run relationships and liquidity shocks drive interbank rates and spread fluctuations. Therefore, liquidity shocks propagating within the interbank market can forecast benchmark interest movements, and ultimately this has significant implications for policy-makers and market players alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Eross, Andrea & Urquhart, Andrew & Wolfe, Simon, 2016. "Liquidity risk contagion in the interbank market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:45:y:2016:i:c:p:142-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.07.005
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    2. Chundakkadan, Radeef & Sasidharan, Subash, 2019. "Liquidity pull-back and predictability of government security yield volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 124-132.
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    4. Bakoush, Mohamed & Gerding, Enrico H. & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "Margin requirements and systemic liquidity risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-95.
    5. Zhang, Ailian & Wang, Shuyao & Liu, Bai & Fu, Jingyuan, 2020. "How government regulation of interbank financing impacts risk for Chinese commercial banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    8. Giovanni Verga & Federica Trani & Nicoleta Vasilcovschi, 2018. "The Interaction between American and European IRS Interest Rates," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 65(1), pages 81-96, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Financial crises; Interbank market; Liquidity shocks; Structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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