IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1310.1634.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cascades in real interbank markets

Author

Listed:
  • Fariba Karimi
  • Matthias Raddant

Abstract

We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted institution to start a cascade depends on an interplay of shock size and connectivity. Further results indicate that the ability to limit default risk by spreading the lending to many counterparts decreased with the financial crisis. To evaluate the influence of the network structure on market stability, we compare the simulated cascades from the empirical network with results from different randomized network models. The results show that the empirical network has non-random features, which cannot be captured by rewired networks. The analysis also reveals that simulations assuming homogeneity for size of banks and loan contracts dramatically overestimates the fragility of the interbank market.

Suggested Citation

  • Fariba Karimi & Matthias Raddant, 2013. "Cascades in real interbank markets," Papers 1310.1634, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1310.1634
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1310.1634
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craig, Ben & von Peter, Goetz, 2014. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-347.
    2. Shin, Hyun Song, 2008. "Risk and liquidity in a system context," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 315-329, July.
    3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Tiziano Squartini & Diego Garlaschelli, 2013. "Null models of economic networks: the case of the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 75-107, April.
    4. Luca Arciero & Ronald Heijmans & Richard Heuver & Marco Massarenti & Cristina Picillo & Francesco Vacirca, 2016. "How to Measure the Unsecured Money Market: The Eurosystem’s Implementation and Validation Using TARGET2 Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 247-280, March.
    5. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    6. Raddant, Matthias, 2014. "Structure in the Italian overnight loan market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 197-213.
    7. Arinaminpathy, Nimalan & Kapadia, Sujit & May, Robert, 2012. "Size and complexity in model financial systems," Bank of England working papers 465, Bank of England.
    8. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    9. Montagna, Mattia & Kok, Christoffer, 2013. "Multi-layered interbank model for assessing systemic risk," Kiel Working Papers 1873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    11. Daniel Fricke & Thomas Lux, 2015. "On the distribution of links in the interbank network: evidence from the e-MID overnight money market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1463-1495, December.
    12. Renaud Beaupain & Alain Durré, 2011. "Inferring trading dynamics for an OTC market: the case of the euro area overnight money market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 1285-1295, October.
    13. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November.
    14. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    15. Karimi, Fariba & Holme, Petter, 2013. "Threshold model of cascades in empirical temporal networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(16), pages 3476-3483.
    16. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    17. Battiston, Stefano & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 138-149.
    18. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    19. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    20. Fricke, Daniel & Lux, Thomas, 2012. "Core-periphery structure in the overnight money market: Evidence from the e-MID trading platform," Kiel Working Papers 1759, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    21. R. Beaupain & A. Durre, 2011. "Inferring trading dynamics for an OTC market: The case of the euro area overnight money market," Post-Print hal-00675976, HAL.
    22. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lux, Thomas, 2016. "Network effects and systemic risk in the banking sector," FinMaP-Working Papers 62, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    2. Tohmé, Fernando & Larrosa, Juan M.C., 2016. "Architectures engender crises: The emergence of power laws in social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 305-316.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1310.1634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.