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Citations for "Prediction Markets"

by Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz

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  1. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," IZA Discussion Papers 1991, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Jinli Hu, 2012. "Combinatorial Modelling and Learning with Prediction Markets," Papers 1201.3851, arXiv.org.
  3. Cole, Shawn & Gine, Xavier & Tobacman, Jeremy & Topalova, Petia & Townsend, Robert & Vickery, James, 2010. "Barriers to household risk management : evidence from India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5504, The World Bank.
  4. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195, January.
  5. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
  6. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk," Working Paper Series 2005-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Working paper 259, Regulation2point0.
  8. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0025, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2009.
  9. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann F\"uller & Orhan K\"oroglu & Jan Marco Leimeister & Helmut Krcmar, 2012. "The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis," Papers 1204.3457, arXiv.org.
  10. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 5676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2010. "Information aggregation in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 379-398, December.
  12. Amos Storkey, 2011. "Machine Learning Markets," Papers 1106.4509, arXiv.org.
  13. Grant, Andrew & Johnstone, David, 2010. "Finding profitable forecast combinations using probability scoring rules," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 498-510, July.
  14. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2009. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Working Paper Series rwp09-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  15. David Kelly & David Letson & Forest Nelson & David S. Nolan & Daniel Solis, 2009. "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 0905, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
  16. Gersbach, Hans & Muller, Markus, 2006. "Elections, Contracts and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Public option and private profits," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 155-165, May.
  18. Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2012. "Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1882-1912.
  19. Jackson, Aaron L., 2010. "Policy futures markets with multiple goals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-54, March.
  20. Hahn, Robert W., 2008. "An Analysis of the 2008 Government Report On the Costs and Benefits of Federal Regulations," Working paper 267, Regulation2point0.
  21. van Bruggen, G.H. & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-028-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  22. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies," CESifo Working Paper Series 3434, CESifo Group Munich.
  23. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and Dissemination of Information in Experimental Asset Markets in the Presence of a Manipulator," Working Papers 2008-29, FEDEA.
  24. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
  25. Douglas D. Davis & Korenok Oleg & Edward S. Prescott, 2011. "An Experimental Analysis of Contingent Capital with Market-Price Triggers," Working Papers 1102, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
  26. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 1975, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  27. Bruno Frey, 2008. "Outside and inside competition for international organizations—from analysis to innovations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 335-350, December.
  28. Alvin E. Roth, 2007. "Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 37-58, Summer.
  29. Gustavo Crespi & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan Haskel & Matthew Slaughter, 2007. "Productivity Growth, Knowledge Flows and Spillovers," CEP Discussion Papers dp0785, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  30. Aseem Brahma & Sanmay Das & Malik Magdon-Ismail, 2010. "Comparing Prediction Market Structures, With an Application to Market Making," Papers 1009.1446, arXiv.org.
  31. David Card & Gordon Dahl, 2009. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," RCER Working Papers 546, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  32. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  33. Richard Potthoff, 2013. "Simple manipulation-resistant voting systems designed to elect Condorcet candidates and suitable for large-scale public elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 101-122, January.
  34. Douglas Davis & Edward S. Prescott & Oleg Korenok, 2011. "An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms," Working Paper 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  35. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
  36. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
  37. Hahn, Robert W. & Litan, Robert E., 2007. "An Analysis of the Tenth Government Report on the Costs and Benefits of Federal Regulations," Working paper 67, Regulation2point0.
  38. Bennouri, Moez & Gimpel, Henner & Robert, Jacques, 2011. "Measuring the impact of information aggregation mechanisms: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 302-318, May.
  39. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
  40. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2007. "Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities," NBER Working Papers 13535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Kurt Nielsen & Jesper Troelsgaard Nielsen, 2010. "An Allocatively Efficient Auction Market for Payment Entitlements?," MSAP Working Paper Series 03_2010, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  42. Chezum, Brian & Stowe, C. Jill, 2010. "Some Evidence of Information Aggregation in Auction Prices," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98528, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  43. Wolk, Leonard & Peeters, Ronald, 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  44. Shipra Agrawal & Erick Delage & Mark Peters & Zizhuo Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2009. "A Unified Framework for Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Information Market Design," Papers 0902.2429, arXiv.org.
  45. Betzer, André & Doumet, Markus & Rinne, Ulf, 2011. "How Policy Changes Affect Shareholder Wealth: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster," IZA Discussion Papers 5896, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  46. Kerr, Norbert L. & Tindale, R. Scott, 2011. "Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 14-40, January.
  47. Gersbach, Hans & Ponta, Oriana, 2013. "Unraveling Short- and Farsightedness in Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers 9314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
  49. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
  50. Angela Dalton & Alan Brothers & Stephen Walsh & Paul Whitney, 2010. "Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 030, University of Siena.
  51. Sjöberg, Lennart, 2006. "Are all crowds equally wise? A comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2006:9, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Oct 2006.
  52. Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  53. Papakonstantinou, A. & Rogers, A & Gerding, E. H. & Jennings, N. R., 2010. "Mechanism Design for the truthful elicitation of costly probabilistic estimates in Distributed Information Systems," MPRA Paper 43324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen & Kieu-Trang Nguyen, 2012. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind: The Value of Political Connections in Social Networks," Working Papers 22-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  55. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
  56. Michael Greenstone, 2007. "Is the "Surge" Working? Some New Facts," NBER Working Papers 13458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Thomakos, Dimitrios D, 2008. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 6701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Veiga, Helena & Vorsatz, Marc, 2006. "Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market," Research Memorandum 024, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  59. Goldstein, Itay & Ozdenoren, Emre & Yuan, Kathy, 2010. "Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2010. "Elections and Political Risk: New Evidence from Political Prediction Markets in Taiwan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2010-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  61. Rajkamal Iyer & Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Erzo F.P. Luttmer & Kelly Shue, 2009. "Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers," NBER Working Papers 15242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Meirowitz, Adam, 2005. "Deliberative Democracy or Market Democracy: Designing Institutions to Aggregate Preferences and Information," Papers 03-28-2005, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
  63. Selb, Peter & Herrmann, Michael & Munzert, Simon & Schübel, Thomas & Shikano, Susumu, 2013. "Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 541-547.
  64. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  65. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  66. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
  67. Bryan Caplan, 2007. "Clifford Winston, Government Failure versus Market Failure," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 325-328, December.
  68. Alan Holland, 2009. "A Prediction Market for Toxic Assets Prices," Papers 0905.4171, arXiv.org.
  69. Robert W. Hahn & Paul C. Tetlock, 2008. "Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 67-84, Winter.
  70. Coleman, S., 2010. "Russian Election Reform and the Effect of Social Conformity on Voting and the Party System: 2007 and 2008," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 5, pages 73-90.
  71. Tetlock, Paul C., 2006. "Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency?," Working paper 159, Regulation2point0.
  72. Urs W. Birchler & Matteo Facchinetti, 2006. "Can bank supervisors rely on market data? A critical assessment from a Swiss perspective," Working Papers 2006-08, Swiss National Bank.
  73. McKenzie, Jordi, 2013. "Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 70-80.
  74. Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2010. "Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1110 - 1150.
  75. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
  76. Chen, Shu-Heng, 2012. "Varieties of agents in agent-based computational economics: A historical and an interdisciplinary perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25.
  77. Smith, Michael A. & Paton, David & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2009. "Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 539-549, August.
  78. Petr Jakubík & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25.
  79. Fahr, René & Irlenbusch, Bernd, 2011. "Who follows the crowd—Groups or individuals?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 200-209.
  80. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " Liquidity, Market Efficiency and the Influence of Noise Traders: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 341, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  81. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  82. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  83. T. Nicolaus Tideman & Florenz Plassmann, 2007. "A Pricing Mechanism for CO2 Emissions that Incorporates Future Revisions of Estimates of the Cost of Today?s Emissions," Working Papers e07-9, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  84. Tongkui Yu & Shu-Heng Chen, 2011. "Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1119, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  85. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 36(16), pages 578, May.
  86. Eymann, Torsten (Ed.), 2011. "Tagungsband zum Doctoral Consortium der WI 2011," Bayreuth Reports on Information Systems Management 51, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Information Systems Management.
  87. Byung-Yeon Kim & Gerard Roland, 2011. "Are the Markets Afraid of Kim Jong-Il?," KIER Working Papers 789, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  88. Hahn, Robert W. & Litan, Robert E., 2003. "An Analysis of the Sixth Government Report on the Costs and Benefits of Federal Regulations," Working paper 153, Regulation2point0.
  89. Alasdair Brown, 2013. "Information Acquisition in Ostensibly Efficient Markets," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 043, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  90. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Discussion Papers 11-01, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  91. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
  92. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  93. Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1496, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  94. Sebastian Goers & Alexander Wagner & Jürgen Wegmayr, 2010. "New and old market-based instruments for climate change policy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, June.
  95. David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 330-36, May.
  96. Shapiro, Stuart, 2008. "Analysis of Homeland Security Regulations, Small Steps Forward, Giant Leaps to Go," Working paper 402, Regulation2point0.
  97. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  98. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  99. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2011. "Information Markets, Elections and Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3327, CESifo Group Munich.
  100. Jean-François Laslier & Karine Straeten, 2008. "A live experiment on approval voting," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 97-105, March.
  101. Oechssler, Jörg & Schmidt, Carsten & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2007. "Asset Bubbles without Dividends - An Experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-01, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  102. Ledyard, John & Hanson, Robin & Ishikida, Takashi, 2009. "An experimental test of combinatorial information markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-189, February.